1512 Willow Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$29,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1900 4,851 sqft lot ↓ 60% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors, get your offer in by 5pm on Monday 3/30. Just 10 minutes to the falls and within the AirBnB Zone. Good strong bones, needs some rehab. Features living room, spacious formal dining room and large kitchen on the first floor. The second floor has 3 bedrooms and full bath. Full basement with laundry. Fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Living room
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 41.2% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.50%
• DSCR: 6.54
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1512 Willow Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,148 (0%)	0mo	$39,300	$34	100
1812 Pierce Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+0%)	0mo	$65,000	$56	89
1133 Whitney Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,057 (-8%)	3mo	$76,100	$72	71
724 17th St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,179 (+3%)	4mo	$70,000	$59	68
1145 Whitney Ave	0.27mi	3/1.5	992 (-14%)	1mo	$105,100	$106	62
627 13th St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-2%)	4mo	$110,000	$98	61
2189 Seneca Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-2%)	2mo	$130,000	$116	60
1870 South Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+15%)	0mo	$116,000	$88	57
1852 Ontario Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,273 (+11%)	3mo	$85,000	$67	56
1317 Niagara Ave	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (+14%)	1mo	$28,000	$21	50
1148 Haeberle Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,302 (+13%)	4mo	$85,000	$65	50
749 16th St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+15%)	4mo	$117,000	$89	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $50,662
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.77×
• Total profit: $115,668
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,999

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	43d	1	0.23mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.33mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.37mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	1d	1	0.43mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	1d	1	0.43mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	23d	1	0.44mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	21d	1	0.46mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	3d	1	0.63mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	17d	1	0.64mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	0.67mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	0.75mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.81mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	1d	1	0.87mi
616 7th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	23d	1	0.88mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.91mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	43d	1	0.96mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	14d	1	1.02mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.10mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.12mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	10d	1	1.22mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	1.34mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   listed $29,999 Active
3. 2024-05-09
   historical
4. 2024-04-16
   listed $74,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $10,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,547
• After-tax cash flow: $7,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-59.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $29,999 UNYREIS
• 2024-05-09 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-04-16 Listed $74,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,775 · +18.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.