2753 N Ibis Ct · St. James City, FL 33956

$429,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1982 7,492 sqft lot Est $856k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your island home awaits in the heart of St. James City, a beloved boating and fishing community where life moves at an easy, sun-soaked pace and the Gulf is just minutes away. This direct Gulf-access waterfront home captures the essence of true coastal living—open, relaxed, and effortlessly connected to the water. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2.5 coastal-inspired bathrooms, the home features a light-filled, open floor plan designed for breezy entertaining and everyday island comfort. The kitchen is the heart of the home, with generous counter space, ample cabinetry, and a wet bar by night or coffee bar by day—perfect for gathering before and after a day on the boat or enjoying the fr

Key facts

• Wet bar
• Ample cabinetry
• 7,492 sq ft lot

Tags

• GULF ACCESS WATERFRONT
• PERGOLA COVERED PATIO
• RECENTLY INSTALLED SEAWALL
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• WET BAR
• LIGHT FILLED OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MH-1; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 125 (0.172 acres)
• HOA & community: No association fee; Boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level 1; Facing east; Resale property; Has view
• Construction: Built with block, concrete, stucco and wood frame; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Open patio / Porch; Patio; Porch; Privacy wall; Room for pool; Canal access with seawall; West exposure; Rectangular lot; Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator with ice maker; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters; Great room
• Flooring: Concrete; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Furnished; Wet bar / Bar; Coffered ceilings; Family/Dining room; Living/Dining room; Main level primary; Bedroom on main level; Shower only with separate shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry with laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.46%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $855,558
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2443 Carambola Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-1%)	2mo	$849,000	$522	80
3610 Outrigger Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-3%)	14mo	$695,000	$437	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-29,765
• Equity at exit: $64,099

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $26,163
• Equity at exit: $37,170

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,921 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,857/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,033
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,133

Max offer price $429,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $866	-5% $744	+0% $622	+5% $501	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $428	+0% $622	+5% $817	+10% $1,011
Rate	-1.0pp $839	-0.5pp $732	base $622	+0.5pp $511	+1.0pp $398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.73mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.95mi
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.97mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	24d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,900 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,900 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $429,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,900 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $429,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $429,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-03-14
    price $429,900
12. 2026-01-27
    listed $459,900 Active
13. 2025-10-15
    historical
14. 2025-04-25
    listed $460,000 Active
15. 2024-10-21
    historical
16. 2024-07-22
    listed $579,000 Active
17. 2023-05-30
    soldstatus $540,000
18. 2023-03-31
    historical
19. 2023-02-08
    price $599,000
20. 2022-11-25
    price $539,900
21. 2022-05-14
    price $679,000
22. 2022-04-05
    price $689,000
23. 2022-03-23
    price $739,000
24. 2022-03-19
    listed $789,000 Active
25. 2022-02-03
    price $2,670
26. 2022-02-03
    soldstatus $390,000
27. 2022-01-31
    soldstatus $390,000 Closed
28. 2022-01-19
    status Pending
29. 2021-12-21
    price $390,000
30. 2021-10-20
    price $399,900
31. 2021-09-02
    price $409,900
32. 2021-07-28
    listed $439,900 Active
33. 1983-07-01
    soldstatus $33,000
34. 1978-08-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,857 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,857 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$4,857
• − Insurance: −$7,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,724
• − Management: −$4,724
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable income: $888
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$213
• After-tax cash flow: $7,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2049.5% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $429,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $459,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $460,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-07-22 Listed $579,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $540,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2023-02-08 Price Changed $599,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-11-25 Price Changed $539,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-05-14 Price Changed $679,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-04-05 Price Changed $689,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-03-23 Price Changed $739,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-03-19 Listed $789,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $2,670 RENT.
• 2022-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-31 Sold (MLS) $390,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-01-19 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2021-12-21 Price Changed $390,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-10-20 Price Changed $399,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-09-02 Price Changed $409,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-07-28 Listed $439,900 FORTMLS
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1978-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,857 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.