606 SW Whitetail Cir · Lake City, FL 32024

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1999 0.39 ac lot Est $234k · 7% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great location, close to town! Immaculately maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in lovely Deer Creek subdivision. Move-in ready with a full kitchen remodel in 2022 including quartz countertops. Brand new shower in primary bedroom. Freshly painted driveway with carport. Screened in back porch with chain link fence. 2 storage sheds. AC with new duct work in 2022. Don't miss out on this home!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New duct work
• Full kitchen remodel

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN REMODEL
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• CHAIN LINK FENCE
• STORAGE SHEDS
• NEW DUCT WORK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $100 (about $8.33/month)

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air conditioning; Central electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($615/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $219k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,601 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,360
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 SW Whitetail Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	11mo	$195,000	$139	76
157 SW Trey Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	10mo	$258,846	$184	74
365 SW Whitetail Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	17mo	$225,000	$155	72
136 SW Nathan Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	4mo	$229,000	$169	71
140 SW Doe Gln	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	22mo	$185,000	$119	70
155 SW Aloe Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-14%)	23mo	$155,000	$120	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $122,513
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $358,171
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,197/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,811

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $113	+0% $51	+5% $-11	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-23	+0% $51	+5% $125	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $107	base $51	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,000 Active 198 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    price $224,000
18. 2025-12-12
    price $229,900
19. 2025-11-13
    listed $234,900 Active
20. 2004-03-31
    soldstatus $68,000
21. 1999-07-28
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,197
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$748
• After-tax cash flow: $1,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1078.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $224,000 NFMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $229,900 NFMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $234,900 NFMLS
• 2004-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1999-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,197 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.