1561 Edgewood Dr · Erie, PA 16509

$56,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $59k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in ready! New roof in 2022, hot water tank 2021, central air 2019. Includes all appliances! Covered patio and fenced in yard!

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Covered patio
• Central air

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HOT WATER TANK
• CENTRAL AIR
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED IN YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Skylights

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $782 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Fort Leboeuf SD (rural): math 52% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #77 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $387 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.85%
• DSCR: 3.66
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,136
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1520 Pinegrove Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+1%)	2mo	$102,500	$76	93
1595 Edgewood Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$18,000	$13	88
1632 Edgewood Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (0%)	7mo	$59,500	$44	88
8215 Timberwood Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$59,000	$47	83
1640 Edgewood Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	4mo	$45,000	$37	77
1540 Edgewood Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	23mo	$42,500	$33	74
8205 Cloveridge Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-4%)	9mo	$68,000	$53	65
8223 Timberwood Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	9mo	$60,000	$40	64
8191 Willow Glen Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	15mo	$94,400	$65	52
8233 Cloveridge Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	23mo	$55,000	$44	46
8230 Willow Glen Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	21mo	$77,500	$53	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $40,767
• Equity at exit: $8,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $99,769
• Equity at exit: $4,842

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,043/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $511

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $56,000 Active
3. 2024-04-18
   listed $68,000 Active
4. 2022-08-01
   listed $65,000
5. 2021-09-30
   soldstatus $53,000
6. 2021-09-01
   listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,043 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$1,043
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $9,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,170
• After-tax cash flow: $7,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Leboeuf SD
• NCES district ID: 4209990
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,607
• Composite: 51.46/100
• National rank: #1725
• State rank: #77 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-29 Listed $56,000 GEBOR
• 2024-04-18 Listed $68,000 GEBOR
• 2022-08-01 Listed $65,000 GEBOR
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) $53,000 GEBOR
• 2021-09-01 Listed $55,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,043 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.