318 Lake Aly · Lufkin, TX 75904

$108,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1986 7,841 sqft lot $90/sqft · 75% above area ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out—this one won't last long! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a great opportunity for both first-time buyers and savvy investors! With endless potential, this property is ready for your personal touch or to become your next income-producing rental. Enjoy outdoor living with a spacious deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The home also features a new gas range, wood-burning fireplace, 2-car garage and durable laminate and vinyl plank flooring throughout. Whether you're looking to start your homeownership journey or expand your investment portfolio, this property checks the boxes! Schedule a showing today!! SOLD AS IS!!!!

Key facts

• New gas range
• Spacious deck
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• SPACIOUS DECK
• NEW GAS RANGE
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• DURABLE LAMINATE FLOORING
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.6% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,520 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.28%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,768
• List price: $108,000
• Delta: 74.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1507 Keltys	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,223 (+2%)	18mo	$139,900	$114	53
709 Culverhouse St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	20mo	$124,900	$101	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $628
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $23,953
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,677/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $951

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Cousart St Lufkin, TX	3.0	1.0	952	$1,100	$1.16	43d	1	0.56mi
810 Ellis Ave Lufkin, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	43d	1	1.25mi
1214 Lotus Ln Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$900	$1.01	43d	1	1.31mi
120 E Denman Ave Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,300	$1.32	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $108,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $108,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $108,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $108,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $108,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $108,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $108,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,500 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,500 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $118,500 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $118,500 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Don't miss out—this one won't last long! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a great opportunity for both first-time buyers and savvy investors! With endless potential, this property is ready for your personal touch or to become your next income-producing rental. Enjoy outdoor living with a spacious deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The home also features a new gas range, wood-burning fireplace, 2-car garage and durable laminate and vinyl plank flooring throughout. Whether you're looking to start your homeownership journey or expand your investment portfolio, this property checks the boxes! Schedule a showing today!! SOLD AS IS!!!!

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $124,500 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    Don't miss out—this one won't last long! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is a great opportunity for both first-time buyers and savvy investors! With endless potential, this property is ready for your personal touch or to become your next income-producing rental. Enjoy outdoor living with a spacious deck, perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. The home also features a new gas range, wood-burning fireplace, 2-car garage and durable laminate and vinyl plank flooring throughout. Whether you're looking to start your homeownership journey or expand your investment portfolio, this property checks the boxes! Schedule a showing today!! SOLD AS IS!!!!

19. 1996-09-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,677 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,677
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $1,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $2,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1159.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $118,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $124,500 Deep East Texas MLS
• 1996-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,677 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.