25 Bethel Trl · Kelly, PA 17886

$39,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 456 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1920 Fair condition $88/sqft · 33% above area Est $30k · 33% over $200/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated Cottage with recreational, spiritual, and cultural enrichment included! Located between West Milton and Lewisburg, SEASONAL USAGE ONLY from Mid-April through Mid-October. Amenities include tennis, basketball, and volleyball courts, a playground, picnic pavilions, shuffleboard, a fire pit, and a swimming pool. During the summer months, various community bands, choruses, ensembles, and soloists perform onsite. HOMES ARE ON LEASED GROUNDS with the Central Oaks Heights Association. This is an opportunity to purchase a summer cottage with family values, lovely views, trails, and proximity to town. For more information, visit www. centraloakheights.org. Agents see private remarks. CASH SALE ONLY. Call Doug Wertz for a private tour 570-713-9961 VACATION RETREAT!!

Key facts

• Picnic pavilions
• Tennis courts
• Shuffleboard

Tags

• TENNIS COURTS
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• VOLLEYBALL COURTS
• PLAYGROUND
• PICNIC PAVILIONS
• SHUFFLEBOARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($804 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lewisburg Area SD (town): math 65% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 539 in PA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kelly El Sch (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #151 of 1,518 statewide, top 12%, 548 students, 30% FRL); Donald H Eichhorn Ms (math 59% / reading 75%, grade A-, #17 of 512 statewide, top 4%, 413 students, 29% FRL); Lewisburg Hs (math 87%, 610 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $755 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $40k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.15%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $30,013
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: 32.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $12,820
• Equity at exit: $15,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $34,562
• Equity at exit: $22,153

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17886

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $173	+0% $160	+5% $146	+10% $132
Rent	-10% $96	-5% $128	+0% $160	+5% $191	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $170	base $160	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    price $39,900 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    Recently updated Cottage with recreational, spiritual, and cultural enrichment included! Located between West Milton and Lewisburg, SEASONAL USAGE ONLY from Mid-April through Mid-October. Amenities include tennis, basketball, and volleyball courts, a playground, picnic pavilions, shuffleboard, a fire pit, and a swimming pool. During the summer months, various community bands, choruses, ensembles, and soloists perform onsite. HOMES ARE ON LEASED GROUNDS with the Central Oaks Heights Association. This is an opportunity to purchase a summer cottage with family values, lovely views, trails, and proximity to town. For more information, visit www. centraloakheights.org. Agents see private remarks. CASH SALE ONLY. Call Doug Wertz for a private tour 570-713-9961 VACATION RETREAT!!

19. 2026-04-03
    listed $42,500 Active 783-char remark

    Show marketing remark (783 chars)

    Recently updated Cottage with recreational, spiritual, and cultural enrichment included! Located between West Milton and Lewisburg, SEASONAL USAGE ONLY from Mid-April through Mid-October. Amenities include tennis, basketball, and volleyball courts, a playground, picnic pavilions, shuffleboard, a fire pit, and a swimming pool. During the summer months, various community bands, choruses, ensembles, and soloists perform onsite. HOMES ARE ON LEASED GROUNDS with the Central Oaks Heights Association. This is an opportunity to purchase a summer cottage with family values, lovely views, trails, and proximity to town. For more information, visit www. centraloakheights.org. Agents see private remarks. CASH SALE ONLY. Call Doug Wertz for a private tour 570-713-9961 VACATION RETREAT!!

20. 2025-09-16
    listed $42,500 Active
21. 2018-08-20
    soldstatus $12,000
22. 2018-06-22
    listed $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$772
• − Management: −$772
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $1,513
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

A moderately rehabbed cottage with average condition, requiring some cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Light wear on walls
• Minor Flooring — Carpeted floors need cleaning
• Moderate Kitchen appliances — Dated appliances need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and improves functionality
• Both Replace flooring — Fresh carpet or hardwood improves comfort and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Light wear on walls	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Carpeted floors need cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen appliances · Dated appliances need replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Fresh carpet or hardwood improves comfort and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4213590
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,129
• Composite: 58.94/100
• National rank: #968
• State rank: #31 of 539 in PA

Livability — Kelly

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 777

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,664 people
• By 2030: 47,704 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 48,798 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 49,048 · +5.1%
• By 2075: 47,491 · +1.8%
• By 2100: 41,817 · -10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 2%
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.4) · D 37.8% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.4 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+25.7 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Current HPI: 135.4107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+185.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $39,900 CSVBR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $42,500 CSVBR
• 2025-09-16 Listed $42,500 CSVBR
• 2018-08-20 Sold (MLS) $12,000 CSVBR
• 2018-06-22 Listed $14,000 CSVBR