5815 Gratiot Ave · Shields, MI 48638

$128,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1935 0.57 ac lot $145/sqft · 16% below area Est $154k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in a highly desirable area! This cozy gem offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, featuring modern updates throughout and a layout that feels warm and inviting. Enjoy a bright living space, and updated kitchen, and well-maintained finishes that make this home truly move-in ready. All appliances stay, making your transition effortless! Zoned commercial, this property offers incredible flexibility! Perfect for a home-based business, office space, or small storefront right out front while still enjoying residential living. Ideal for entrepreneurs, investors, or anyone looking to combine work and home in one prime location.

Key facts

• Office space
• Small storefront
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ZONED COMMERCIAL
• HOME BASED BUSINESS
• OFFICE SPACE
• SMALL STOREFRONT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Shields — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in MI, #1,310 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw Township Community Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #265 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $891 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $99k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,100 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.19%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,740
• List price: $128,900
• Delta: -16.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 St Andrews Road Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+13%)	9mo	$160,000	$159	45
13 Valentine Ct	0.48mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,008 (+13%)	5mo	$162,000	$161	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,990
• Equity at exit: $19,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,059
• Equity at exit: $11,145

Cash invested: $36,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48638

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $757/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $128,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,225
• Closing costs: $3,867
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6249 Amanda Dr Saginaw, MI	2.0	1.0	858	$1,250	$1.46	44d	1	1.12mi
6301 Fox Glen Dr Saginaw, MI	2.0	1.0	662	$1,125	$1.70	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $128,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $128,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    listed $129,900 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in a highly desirable area! This cozy gem offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, featuring modern updates throughout and a layout that feels warm and inviting. Enjoy a bright living space, and updated kitchen, and well-maintained finishes that make this home truly move-in ready. All appliances stay, making your transition effortless! Zoned commercial, this property offers incredible flexibility! Perfect for a home-based business, office space, or small storefront right out front while still enjoying residential living. Ideal for entrepreneurs, investors, or anyone looking to combine work and home in one prime location.

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $129,900 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in a highly desirable area! This cozy gem offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience, featuring modern updates throughout and a layout that feels warm and inviting. Enjoy a bright living space, and updated kitchen, and well-maintained finishes that make this home truly move-in ready. All appliances stay, making your transition effortless! Zoned commercial, this property offers incredible flexibility! Perfect for a home-based business, office space, or small storefront right out front while still enjoying residential living. Ideal for entrepreneurs, investors, or anyone looking to combine work and home in one prime location.

17. 2022-09-02
    soldstatus $99,000
18. 2022-08-29
    soldstatus $99,000 Sold
19. 2022-08-29
    soldstatus $99,000 Closed
20. 2022-07-27
    status Pending
21. 2022-07-27
    status Pending
22. 2022-06-16
    listed $114,000 Active
23. 2022-06-16
    listed $114,000 Active
24. 2019-11-14
    historical
25. 2019-11-14
    historical
26. 2019-02-08
    listed $68,000 Active
27. 2019-02-08
    listed $68,000 Active
28. 2015-03-18
    historical
29. 2015-03-18
    historical
30. 2015-01-02
    listed $58,000
31. 2015-01-02
    listed $58,000
32. 2014-12-25
    historical
33. 2014-12-25
    historical
34. 2014-06-25
    listed $58,000
35. 2014-06-25
    listed $58,000
36. 2010-05-30
    historical
37. 2010-05-30
    historical
38. 2009-11-30
    listed $39,000
39. 2009-11-30
    listed $39,000
40. 2001-10-01
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $757 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 81.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,220
• − Property taxes: −$757
• − Insurance: −$644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$3,750
• Taxable loss: −$265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $1,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw Township Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630450
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,971
• Composite: 31.01/100
• National rank: #6094
• State rank: #265 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shields

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #1310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,668

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.44%
• Current HPI: 164.3443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+124.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-29 Sold (MLS) $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-29 Sold (MLS) $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-07-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-07-27 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $114,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-16 Listed $114,000 REALCOMP
• 2019-11-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2019-11-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-02-08 Listed $68,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-02-08 Listed $68,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-03-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-03-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-01-02 Listed $58,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-02 Listed $58,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-12-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2014-12-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-06-25 Listed $58,000 REALCOMP
• 2014-06-25 Listed $58,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-11-30 Listed $39,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-11-30 Listed $39,000 REALCOMP
• 2001-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $757 · -52.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.