207 Hillsdale Dr · Ballwin, MO 63011

$275,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1954 0.46 ac lot Est $291k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FRESHLY PAINTED! NEWER FLOORING! IMMEDIATE OCCUPANCY on this 3 bed, 2 bath ranch situated on nearly 1/2 acre lot backing to COMMON GROUND featuring OVERSIZED 2 CAR GARAGE! Updates include: Furnace & A/C 2013, Roof, gutters & insulated vinyl siding w/1" foam backing 2012, Hot water heater 2017, Gas Fireplace 2008 & walk-in tub 2014! Dalco Elite Vinyl REPLACEMENT WINDOWS added in most rooms in 2016. Spacious Family room addition added in 1980 with windows replaced in 1999 including bay window providing lots of natural lighting! All windows are Double Tilt w/full screens. Updated electrical panel! Large kitchen offers plenty of raised panel oak cabinetry with built-in panty. Updated gas stove! Dishwasher & microwave & Refrigerator to stay! Partial basement offers 2nd bath & kitchen areas. Come relax and enjoy this relaxing setting - perfect for entertaining family & friends! Conveniently located within minutes of shopping, schools & more! AFFORDABLY PRICED! DON'T MISS OUT!

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway with concrete surfaces; Garage door opener; garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single phase electric; Cable, electricity, natural gas, sewer and water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (attached); One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard fencing; Private back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Ice maker; Microwave; Free-standing gas range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one main level, one in basement); Basement bathroom is a partial
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard and forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room fireplace (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-918/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westridge Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 400 students, 20% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 139 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $215,001 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,613
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
915 Coronet Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+8%)	1mo	$269,000	$188	75
127 Ivy Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+2%)	2mo	$339,000	$249	68
914 Prince Charles Way	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	1mo	$268,000	$199	65
119 Smith Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-4%)	8mo	$329,900	$260	63
945 Warwick Ln	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (+4%)	4mo	$289,900	$210	59
932 Crestland Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,397 (+5%)	9mo	$273,500	$196	58
737 Smith Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-8%)	10mo	$275,000	$224	57
229 Mar El Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+14%)	6mo	$359,900	$238	50
332 Providence Rd	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,189 (-10%)	1mo	$249,900	$210	50
933 Claybend Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+11%)	12mo	$309,900	$210	40
15609 Clayton Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+13%)	16mo	$350,000	$234	29
67 Vesper Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (-14%)	15mo	$249,900	$219	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,073
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-71,591
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63011

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,619/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $261,490

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $1	+0% $-76	+5% $-154	+10% $-232
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-161	+0% $-76	+5% $8	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $-7	base $-76	+0.5pp $-148	+1.0pp $-220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Hillsdale Dr Ballwin, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,995	$2.16	44d	1	0.03mi
170 Steamboat Ln Ballwin, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1177	$2,302	$1.95	2d	10	0.92mi
974 Claytonbrook Dr Unit 2D Ballwin, MO	3.0	2.0	1768	$2,125	$1.20	2d	1	0.95mi
15970 Manchester Rd Ellisville, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,185	$3.33	2d	103	1.26mi
920 Quail Terrace Ct Ballwin, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,209	$2.15	2d	9	1.42mi
500 Seven Trails Dr Ballwin, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$1,904	$1.63	2d	18	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $275,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   status $275,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   remarks 683-char remark
5. 2026-06-08
   listed $275,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,619 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,668 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,619
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,374
• After-tax cash flow: $457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwood R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2926850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $98,721
• Composite: 53.61/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #9 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ballwin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #357

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute D Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ballwin, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 91,586
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 35,920
• Household income: $124,454
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Asian 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.82%
• Current HPI: 234.1279
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Coming Soon $275,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-02 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-08 Listed $250,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-02 Coming Soon $250,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1957-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,619 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.