2474 Bear Branch Rd · Vansant, VA 24646

$115,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · Other public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1976 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

ORIGINALLY A MOBILE HOME, THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH HOME HAS ADDITIONS AND BEEAUTIFUL IMPROVEMENTS. METAL ROOF, HEAT PUMP, UPDATED BATHROOMS. UPDATED KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND, WOOD CABINETS AND LOTS OF STORAGE. REFRIGERATOR, RANGE AND MICROWAVE CONVEY. NEW WATER HEATER. LOTS OF BEAUTFUL WOODWORK! TWO GAS LOG FIREPLACES, ONE FREE STANDING AND THE OTHER WITH STONE CHIMNEY. DETACHED GARAGE/METAL CARPORT WITH STORAGE BUILDING. CRAWL SPACE HAS BEEN ENCAPSULATED. PUBLIC WATER, PRIVATE SEPTIC. ALL ON TWO ACRES, MOSTLY WOODED AND MOUNTAINOUS, BUT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR LARGE YARD AND GARDEN AREA. LOTS OF WILDLIFE! NEAR BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK! JUST OFF RT 83, VERY CONVENIENT TO GRUNDY AREA.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Lots of storage
• Heat pump

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• HEAT PUMP
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• LOTS OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#523 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.5%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $115k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,196
• Equity at exit: $19,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,145
• Equity at exit: $14,023

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24646

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $238/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $120,000 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    ORIGINALLY A MOBILE HOME, THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH HOME HAS ADDITIONS AND BEEAUTIFUL IMPROVEMENTS. METAL ROOF, HEAT PUMP, UPDATED BATHROOMS. UPDATED KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND, WOOD CABINETS AND LOTS OF STORAGE. REFRIGERATOR, RANGE AND MICROWAVE CONVEY. NEW WATER HEATER. LOTS OF BEAUTFUL WOODWORK! TWO GAS LOG FIREPLACES, ONE FREE STANDING AND THE OTHER WITH STONE CHIMNEY. DETACHED GARAGE/METAL CARPORT WITH STORAGE BUILDING. CRAWL SPACE HAS BEEN ENCAPSULATED. PUBLIC WATER, PRIVATE SEPTIC. ALL ON TWO ACRES, MOSTLY WOODED AND MOUNTAINOUS, BUT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR LARGE YARD AND GARDEN AREA. LOTS OF WILDLIFE! NEAR BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK! JUST OFF RT 83, VERY CONVENIENT TO GRUNDY AREA.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $115,000 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    ORIGINALLY A MOBILE HOME, THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH HOME HAS ADDITIONS AND BEEAUTIFUL IMPROVEMENTS. METAL ROOF, HEAT PUMP, UPDATED BATHROOMS. UPDATED KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND, WOOD CABINETS AND LOTS OF STORAGE. REFRIGERATOR, RANGE AND MICROWAVE CONVEY. NEW WATER HEATER. LOTS OF BEAUTFUL WOODWORK! TWO GAS LOG FIREPLACES, ONE FREE STANDING AND THE OTHER WITH STONE CHIMNEY. DETACHED GARAGE/METAL CARPORT WITH STORAGE BUILDING. CRAWL SPACE HAS BEEN ENCAPSULATED. PUBLIC WATER, PRIVATE SEPTIC. ALL ON TWO ACRES, MOSTLY WOODED AND MOUNTAINOUS, BUT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR LARGE YARD AND GARDEN AREA. LOTS OF WILDLIFE! NEAR BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK! JUST OFF RT 83, VERY CONVENIENT TO GRUNDY AREA.

18. 2026-03-12
    price $125,000 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    ORIGINALLY A MOBILE HOME, THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH HOME HAS ADDITIONS AND BEEAUTIFUL IMPROVEMENTS. METAL ROOF, HEAT PUMP, UPDATED BATHROOMS. UPDATED KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND, WOOD CABINETS AND LOTS OF STORAGE. REFRIGERATOR, RANGE AND MICROWAVE CONVEY. NEW WATER HEATER. LOTS OF BEAUTFUL WOODWORK! TWO GAS LOG FIREPLACES, ONE FREE STANDING AND THE OTHER WITH STONE CHIMNEY. DETACHED GARAGE/METAL CARPORT WITH STORAGE BUILDING. CRAWL SPACE HAS BEEN ENCAPSULATED. PUBLIC WATER, PRIVATE SEPTIC. ALL ON TWO ACRES, MOSTLY WOODED AND MOUNTAINOUS, BUT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR LARGE YARD AND GARDEN AREA. LOTS OF WILDLIFE! NEAR BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK! JUST OFF RT 83, VERY CONVENIENT TO GRUNDY AREA.

19. 2026-02-24
    listed $130,000 Active 688-char remark

    Show marketing remark (688 chars)

    ORIGINALLY A MOBILE HOME, THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH HOME HAS ADDITIONS AND BEEAUTIFUL IMPROVEMENTS. METAL ROOF, HEAT PUMP, UPDATED BATHROOMS. UPDATED KITCHEN WITH CENTER ISLAND, WOOD CABINETS AND LOTS OF STORAGE. REFRIGERATOR, RANGE AND MICROWAVE CONVEY. NEW WATER HEATER. LOTS OF BEAUTFUL WOODWORK! TWO GAS LOG FIREPLACES, ONE FREE STANDING AND THE OTHER WITH STONE CHIMNEY. DETACHED GARAGE/METAL CARPORT WITH STORAGE BUILDING. CRAWL SPACE HAS BEEN ENCAPSULATED. PUBLIC WATER, PRIVATE SEPTIC. ALL ON TWO ACRES, MOSTLY WOODED AND MOUNTAINOUS, BUT PLENTY OF ROOM FOR LARGE YARD AND GARDEN AREA. LOTS OF WILDLIFE! NEAR BREAKS INTERSTATE PARK! JUST OFF RT 83, VERY CONVENIENT TO GRUNDY AREA.

20. 2024-07-30
    soldstatus $65,000
21. 2024-07-26
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Nice home with 2 Ac, most of which is mountainous. Originally a mobile home, it has been built around with additions & improvements. Metal roof, heat pump, updated bathrooms, updated kitchen w/ double ovens, center island, very nice cabinets & lots of storage. All appliances, including refrigerator, stove, microwave, washer/dryer, plus a second stackable washer/dryer, convey. Lots of beautiful woodwork! The half bath also has a tanning bed, which conveys. A very nice, screened porch w/ ceiling fans & hot tub is perfect for relaxation! Two gas log fireplaces, one free-standing & the other with stone chimney. Main bedroom opens to a handicapped ramp. A detached garage/storage building, & a metal carport allow ample parking for vehicles. Public water & septic. It's very affordable!! Call for an appt. to see!

22. 2024-07-01
    status Pending 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Nice home with 2 Ac, most of which is mountainous. Originally a mobile home, it has been built around with additions & improvements. Metal roof, heat pump, updated bathrooms, updated kitchen w/ double ovens, center island, very nice cabinets & lots of storage. All appliances, including refrigerator, stove, microwave, washer/dryer, plus a second stackable washer/dryer, convey. Lots of beautiful woodwork! The half bath also has a tanning bed, which conveys. A very nice, screened porch w/ ceiling fans & hot tub is perfect for relaxation! Two gas log fireplaces, one free-standing & the other with stone chimney. Main bedroom opens to a handicapped ramp. A detached garage/storage building, & a metal carport allow ample parking for vehicles. Public water & septic. It's very affordable!! Call for an appt. to see!

23. 2024-06-29
    status Active 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Nice home with 2 Ac, most of which is mountainous. Originally a mobile home, it has been built around with additions & improvements. Metal roof, heat pump, updated bathrooms, updated kitchen w/ double ovens, center island, very nice cabinets & lots of storage. All appliances, including refrigerator, stove, microwave, washer/dryer, plus a second stackable washer/dryer, convey. Lots of beautiful woodwork! The half bath also has a tanning bed, which conveys. A very nice, screened porch w/ ceiling fans & hot tub is perfect for relaxation! Two gas log fireplaces, one free-standing & the other with stone chimney. Main bedroom opens to a handicapped ramp. A detached garage/storage building, & a metal carport allow ample parking for vehicles. Public water & septic. It's very affordable!! Call for an appt. to see!

24. 2024-06-24
    status Pending 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Nice home with 2 Ac, most of which is mountainous. Originally a mobile home, it has been built around with additions & improvements. Metal roof, heat pump, updated bathrooms, updated kitchen w/ double ovens, center island, very nice cabinets & lots of storage. All appliances, including refrigerator, stove, microwave, washer/dryer, plus a second stackable washer/dryer, convey. Lots of beautiful woodwork! The half bath also has a tanning bed, which conveys. A very nice, screened porch w/ ceiling fans & hot tub is perfect for relaxation! Two gas log fireplaces, one free-standing & the other with stone chimney. Main bedroom opens to a handicapped ramp. A detached garage/storage building, & a metal carport allow ample parking for vehicles. Public water & septic. It's very affordable!! Call for an appt. to see!

25. 2024-06-17
    listed $65,000 Active 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Nice home with 2 Ac, most of which is mountainous. Originally a mobile home, it has been built around with additions & improvements. Metal roof, heat pump, updated bathrooms, updated kitchen w/ double ovens, center island, very nice cabinets & lots of storage. All appliances, including refrigerator, stove, microwave, washer/dryer, plus a second stackable washer/dryer, convey. Lots of beautiful woodwork! The half bath also has a tanning bed, which conveys. A very nice, screened porch w/ ceiling fans & hot tub is perfect for relaxation! Two gas log fireplaces, one free-standing & the other with stone chimney. Main bedroom opens to a handicapped ramp. A detached garage/storage building, & a metal carport allow ample parking for vehicles. Public water & septic. It's very affordable!! Call for an appt. to see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $238 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 295.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$238
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,021
• − Management: −$1,021
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$545
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$131
• After-tax cash flow: $1,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buchanan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,669
• Composite: 47.84/100
• National rank: #2221
• State rank: #76 of 131 in VA

Livability — Vansant

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #24092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 785

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,160 people
• By 2030: 18,734 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 16,071 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 13,815 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 10,376 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 8,432 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.6) · D 14.5% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -70.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.6 2020: R+67.6 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+34.7 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.54%
• Current HPI: 95.6689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+84.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $120,000 SWVAR
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $115,000 SWVAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $125,000 SWVAR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $130,000 SWVAR
• 2024-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-26 Sold (MLS) $65,000 SWVAR
• 2024-07-01 Pending — SWVAR
• 2024-06-29 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2024-06-24 Pending — SWVAR
• 2024-06-17 Listed $65,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $238 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.