5674 W Grovepark Rd · Citrus Springs, FL 34433

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2005 0.93 ac lot Est $103k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR A GREAT VACTION OR STARTER HOME ON . 93 ACRE OF LAND? 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH, EAT IN KITCHEN WITH BAR. NICE MASTER BEDROOM. ACCESS TO LAKE ROUSSEAU FROM BOAT SLIP OFF W. RIVERBEND RD.

Key facts

• 0.93 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.93 acres (about 1/2 to less than 1 acre); Living area approximately 960 square feet
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated; Community near airport/runway

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (Single wide); Residential property; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $873 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.1% in Citrus Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 642 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $145k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.82%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,720
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5416 W Cougar Ln	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-7%)	8mo	$103,000	$115	53
5150 W Evita Ln	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-5%)	16mo	$98,000	$107	40
5339 W Cougar Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	13mo	$60,000	$71	38
5350 W Bandy Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	825 (-14%)	19mo	$80,000	$97	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $32,110
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $99,540
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 642
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,487/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6185 W Riverbend Rd Dunnellon, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,300	$2.40	13d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   status Active
3. 2026-03-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-06
   listed $144,900 Active
5. 2021-08-23
   soldstatus $75,000 Closed 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A GREAT VACTION OR STARTER HOME ON . 93 ACRE OF LAND? 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH, EAT IN KITCHEN WITH BAR. NICE MASTER BEDROOM. ACCESS TO LAKE ROUSSEAU FROM BOAT SLIP OFF W. RIVERBEND RD.

6. 2021-07-17
   status Pending 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A GREAT VACTION OR STARTER HOME ON . 93 ACRE OF LAND? 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH, EAT IN KITCHEN WITH BAR. NICE MASTER BEDROOM. ACCESS TO LAKE ROUSSEAU FROM BOAT SLIP OFF W. RIVERBEND RD.

7. 2021-07-16
   listed $75,000 Active 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   LOOKING FOR A GREAT VACTION OR STARTER HOME ON . 93 ACRE OF LAND? 2 BEDROOM 2 BATH, EAT IN KITCHEN WITH BAR. NICE MASTER BEDROOM. ACCESS TO LAKE ROUSSEAU FROM BOAT SLIP OFF W. RIVERBEND RD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,487 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,487
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $8,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,074
• After-tax cash flow: $8,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,730
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+93.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $144,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-23 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-16 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,487 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.