5362 Raccoon Rd · Pikeville, KY 41557

$119,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,436 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1978 0.25 ac lot $83/sqft · 11% below area Est $133k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brick ranch with 3 bedrrom, 1.2 baths, detached garage and fenced yard

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($813/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $119k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,360
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -10.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $22,556
• Equity at exit: $57,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $69,568
• Equity at exit: $92,232

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41557

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $753/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $101	+0% $68	+5% $34	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $24	+0% $68	+5% $111	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $98	base $68	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $119,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Brick ranch with 3 bedrrom, 1.2 baths, detached garage and fenced yard

5. 2026-02-09
   listed $119,000 Active 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   Brick ranch with 3 bedrrom, 1.2 baths, detached garage and fenced yard

6. 2010-04-18
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $753 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$271/yr (+$23/mo · 36.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$753
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$280
• After-tax cash flow: $1,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pikeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,026

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Current HPI: 151.5843
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+58.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $119,000 EKAR
• 2010-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $753 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.