5326 Willow Lake Dr · Clarence Center, NY 14031

$499,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1962 0.70 ac lot Est $552k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Park Like setting on the most gorgeous lot with a water fall and private island. Kidney shaped in ground pool separately fenced in flagstone partially covered porch. 4 bed 2.5 bath French doors leading out from 3 way fire place bar area. Tons of potential for this beautiful lot and home, See the otters and Karp and fish off your private dock take a canoe ride so nice so sweet I cant wait to show it and do a little fishing. See You soon

Key facts

• Parklike backyard
• Dry bar
• 0.7 acre lot

Tags

• PARKLIKE BACKYARD
• WOOD BEAMED CATHEDRAL CEILING
• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• COLONIAL FRENCH DOORS
• DRY BAR
• UPDATED EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2.5 spaces; Garage with electricity, water available and garage door opener
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Septic tank; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story house; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Copper plumbing
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; In-ground pool; Patio; River and stream access; Waterfront on Got Creek; Irregular residential lot; City street frontage; Frontage dimensions approximately 120 x 310

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Wine cooler; Appliances negotiable
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Zoned heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Zoned cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Dry bar; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork; Programmable thermostat; Bar
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($529/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $420k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.3% in Clarence Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#596 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ledgeview Elementary School (math 70% / reading 82%, grade A, #285 of 2,108 statewide, top 14%, 473 students, 10% FRL); Clarence Middle School (math 47% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 729 statewide, top 22%, 972 students, 18% FRL); Clarence Senior High School (math 100% / reading 77%, grade A, #299 of 1,100 statewide, top 27%, 1,284 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $232k; list at $500k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $420,000 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $552,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5286 Thompson Rd	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,497 (+8%)	6mo	$400,000	$160	74
5327 Briannas Nook	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,277 (-2%)	3mo	$630,000	$277	74
5308 Thompson Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,414 (+4%)	17mo	$489,900	$203	72
5390 Briannas Nook	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,335 (+1%)	7mo	$670,000	$287	68
5276 Mayfield Ct	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,304 (-1%)	12mo	$412,500	$179	68
5354 Thompson Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,525 (+9%)	8mo	$575,000	$228	67
5311 Briannas Nook Way	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,254 (-3%)	13mo	$704,605	$313	63
5245 Goodrich Rd	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,469 (+6%)	11mo	$631,000	$256	61
5336 Briannas Nook	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,067 (-11%)	9mo	$590,000	$285	52
5261 Green Valley Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,058 (-11%)	8mo	$410,000	$199	47
5530 Serenity Ct	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,477 (+7%)	16mo	$589,922	$238	44
4901 Thompson Rd	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,164 (-7%)	16mo	$425,625	$197	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-78,244
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-64,711
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14031

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$444 /mo · $5,329/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,144

Max offer price $499,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $327	-5% $186	+0% $44	+5% $-97	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-122	+0% $44	+5% $210	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $296	-0.5pp $171	base $44	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5558 Marthas Vineyard Clarence Center, NY	4.0	2.5	2454	$4,200	$1.71	13d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $499,900 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $499,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $499,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $499,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-28
   listed $499,900 Active
7. 2015-09-21
   soldstatus $232,500 Closed Sale or Rented 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Park Like setting on the most gorgeous lot with a water fall and private island. Kidney shaped in ground pool separately fenced in flagstone partially covered porch. 4 bed 2.5 bath French doors leading out from 3 way fire place bar area. Tons of potential for this beautiful lot and home, See the otters and Karp and fish off your private dock take a canoe ride so nice so sweet I cant wait to show it and do a little fishing. See You soon

8. 2015-09-21
   soldstatus $232,500

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Park Like setting on the most gorgeous lot with a water fall and private island. Kidney shaped in ground pool separately fenced in flagstone partially covered porch. 4 bed 2.5 bath French doors leading out from 3 way fire place bar area. Tons of potential for this beautiful lot and home, See the otters and Karp and fish off your private dock take a canoe ride so nice so sweet I cant wait to show it and do a little fishing. See You soon

9. 2015-08-24
   historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Park Like setting on the most gorgeous lot with a water fall and private island. Kidney shaped in ground pool separately fenced in flagstone partially covered porch. 4 bed 2.5 bath French doors leading out from 3 way fire place bar area. Tons of potential for this beautiful lot and home, See the otters and Karp and fish off your private dock take a canoe ride so nice so sweet I cant wait to show it and do a little fishing. See You soon

10. 2015-07-18
    price $249,900 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Park Like setting on the most gorgeous lot with a water fall and private island. Kidney shaped in ground pool separately fenced in flagstone partially covered porch. 4 bed 2.5 bath French doors leading out from 3 way fire place bar area. Tons of potential for this beautiful lot and home, See the otters and Karp and fish off your private dock take a canoe ride so nice so sweet I cant wait to show it and do a little fishing. See You soon

11. 2015-07-15
    price $269,900 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Park Like setting on the most gorgeous lot with a water fall and private island. Kidney shaped in ground pool separately fenced in flagstone partially covered porch. 4 bed 2.5 bath French doors leading out from 3 way fire place bar area. Tons of potential for this beautiful lot and home, See the otters and Karp and fish off your private dock take a canoe ride so nice so sweet I cant wait to show it and do a little fishing. See You soon

12. 2015-06-27
    listed $289,900 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Park Like setting on the most gorgeous lot with a water fall and private island. Kidney shaped in ground pool separately fenced in flagstone partially covered porch. 4 bed 2.5 bath French doors leading out from 3 way fire place bar area. Tons of potential for this beautiful lot and home, See the otters and Karp and fish off your private dock take a canoe ride so nice so sweet I cant wait to show it and do a little fishing. See You soon

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,329 · $444/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,889 · $574/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,560/yr (+$130/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$5,329
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,032
• − Management: −$4,032
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$8,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence Center

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #10843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,741

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.27%
• Current HPI: 344.136
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $499,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $232,500 Public Records
• 2015-09-21 Sold (MLS) $232,500 WNYREIS
• 2015-08-24 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2015-07-18 Price Changed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-07-15 Price Changed $269,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-06-27 Listed $289,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,329 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.