2605 S Tomahawk Rd #187 · Apache Junction, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 111°F)
- 3 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 9 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +22.5/30.0
- 1% rule +7.5/10.0
- DSCR +7.5/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Rent growth +2.9/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Schools +1.7/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -4.7
$47,000
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #187 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured
· 134 Days on market
Manufactured home
55+ age-restricted
Built 1983
$45/sqft
· 59% below area
↓ 22% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
REDUCED! Welcome home to this neat, clean, newly updated affordable home. It's located in a gated 55+ active adult community with low lot rent, Mountain views and a very large backyard. lSome of the NEW items include a 3 door refrigerator, new flooring & ceiling fans. Your kitchen also has a farm sink, plenaty of cabinets with new handles and drawer pulls and a coat or broom closet. Both bathrooms have been updated with vanities, dual flush toilets. There is a walk in shower in the primary Bathroom. The washer and dryer stay as well. The shed with double doors has ample room for garden tools and storage .
Key facts
- Parking
- Community pool
- Built 1983
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $47k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
- Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 3.1% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $325 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$41,360
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.48% ✓
- Cap rate
- 21.51%
- Cash-on-cash
- 54.35%
- DSCR
- 3.42
- GRM
- 3.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $114,500
- List price
- $47,000
- Delta
- -58.95%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2605 S Tomahawk Rd #120 | 0.05mi | 2/2.0 | 1,000 (-5%) | 5mo | $85,000 | $85 | 85 |
| 1416 E Southern Ave | 0.26mi | 2/2.0 | 1,057 (+0%) | 12mo | $99,000 | $94 | 78 |
| 1730 E 21st Ave | 0.32mi | 2/2.0 | 1,024 (-3%) | 7mo | $235,000 | $229 | 74 |
| 2605 S Tomahawk Rd #181 | 0.05mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,200 (+14%) | 5mo | $125,000 | $104 | 66 |
| 2206 S Vista Rd | 0.24mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 960 (-9%) | 1mo | $255,000 | $266 | 65 |
| 3500 S Tomahawk Rd #198 | 0.63mi | 2/2.0 | 1,056 (0%) | 10mo | $75,000 | $71 | 62 |
| 1423 E 19th Ave | 0.47mi | 2/2.0 | 960 (-9%) | 5mo | $235,000 | $245 | 58 |
| 1370 E 21st Ave | 0.42mi | 2/2.0 | 924 (-12%) | 4mo | $125,000 | $135 | 56 |
| 2388 S Vista Rd | 0.14mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,200 (+14%) | 13mo | $294,000 | $245 | 55 |
| 2884 S Acacia Rd | 0.50mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 900 (-15%) | 2mo | $155,000 | $172 | 45 |
| 3700 S Tomahawk Rd #22 | 0.75mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 960 (-9%) | 4mo | $57,500 | $60 | 42 |
| 3500 S Tomahawk Rd #178 | 0.62mi | 2/1.0 | 910 (-14%) | 13mo | $62,000 | $68 | 33 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 50.9%
- Equity multiple
- 3.18×
- Total profit
- $28,708
- Equity at exit
- $7,008
10-year hold
- IRR
- 55.7%
- Equity multiple
- 6.12×
- Total profit
- $67,356
- Equity at exit
- $4,064
Cash invested: $13,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 16 active · 6 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $90,950 ($77/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 139 d
- This list price
- 12% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +39.9% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85119
- Home prices YoY
- -33.5%
- Rents YoY
- 1.6%
- Active inventory
- 428
- Price-to-rent
- 3.4×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,166 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$246
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$59 /mo · $705/yr
- Insurance
- −$20
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$245
- Net cashflow
- $596
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$411
Max offer price
$47,000
Occupancy floor
44%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $628 | -5% $612 | +0% $596 | +5% $580 | +10% $564 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $504 | -5% $550 | +0% $596 | +5% $642 | +10% $688 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $620 | -0.5pp $608 | base $596 | +0.5pp $584 | +1.0pp $571 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $11,750
- Closing costs
- $1,410
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 30 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1540 E 25th Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $995 | $1.17 | 62d | 1 | 0.15mi |
| 1510 E 26th Ln Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1160 | $1,550 | $1.34 | 48d | 1 | 0.17mi |
| 2560 S Yavapai Rd Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,300 | $1.62 | 38d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 2580 S Yavapai Rd Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 840 | $1,300 | $1.55 | 23d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 2692 S Yavapai Rd Unit 3 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,400 | $1.65 | 7d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 1551 E 28th Ave Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 840 | $1,200 | $1.43 | 17d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 3405 S Tomahawk Rd Lot 15 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1216 | $1,499 | $1.23 | 36d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 2247 S Arizona Rd Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1168 | $1,895 | $1.62 | 17d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 3283 S Bowman Rd Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1387 | $1,895 | $1.37 | 38d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 878 E Graham Ln Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 938 | $1,595 | $1.70 | 23d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1186 | $1,848 | $1.56 | 60d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1387 | $2,900 | $2.09 | 73d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1168 | $1,699 | $1.45 | 27d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 2962 E Mohave Ln Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $2,145 | $1.53 | 18d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 720 | $1,150 | $1.60 | 27d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 720 | $1,150 | $1.60 | 54d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 457 E Quail Ave Unit 3 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $1,250 | $1.60 | 34d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 705 E Kachina Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $2,655 | $1.90 | 54d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 499 E Navajo Ave Unit 4 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,288 | $1.72 | 21d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 403 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,350 | $1.69 | 53d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 603 E Hondo Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1283 | $1,750 | $1.36 | 27d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 1297 E Broadway Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 954 | $1,924 | $2.02 | 10d | 25 | 1.03mi |
| 975 S Royal Palm Rd Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,395 | $1.40 | 2d | 12 | 1.14mi |
| 520 E Desert Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1378 | $1,881 | $1.37 | 30d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 483 E 10th Ave Apt C Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 720 | $1,100 | $1.53 | 35d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 451 E 10th Ave Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,199 | $1.41 | 2d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 452 E 10th Ave Unit 104 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 783 | $1,000 | $1.28 | 71d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 25 W 16th Ave Apache Junction, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1134 | $1,699 | $1.50 | 2d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 2061 S Apache Dr Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $995 | $1.24 | 21d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 2061 S Apache Dr Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $995 | $1.24 | 7d | 1 | 1.27mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Private maintained road
- Financial info
- $114.11 annual tax (2025)
- HOA & community
- Land lease of $786 monthlyAssociation covers sewer, street maintenance, trash and waterCommunity amenities include pool, community spa, pickleball, fitness center, community media room, coin-op laundryNo visible trucks/trailers/RVs/boats allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- 1 covered parking space1 carport space
- Security
- Gated community
- Utilities
- City waterSeptic (connected)Land lease (monthly)
- Home design
- Manufactured/mobile homeLeaseholdMountain views
- Construction
- Vinyl sidingWood frame constructionPainted exteriorRolled/Hot Mop roof
- Exterior features
- Private streetsStorageShed(s)Desert front yardGravel/stone in back yardHeated spa
Interior
- Kitchen
- RefrigeratorDishwasher
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetLaminate
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Electric heatingCentral airCeiling fans
- Interior features
- Breakfast bar3/4 bath in primary bedroom
- Laundry & utility
- Indoor laundry
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $47,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $47,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $47,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $47,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $47,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $47,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $47,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $47,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $47,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $47,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $47,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $47,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $47,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $47,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $47,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $47,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $47,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $47,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $47,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $47,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $47,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $47,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $47,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $47,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $47,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $47,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $47,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $47,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $47,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $47,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $47,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $47,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $47,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $47,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $47,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $47,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $47,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $47,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $47,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $47,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $47,000 Active 83 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $47,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $47,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $47,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $47,000 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $47,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $47,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $47,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $47,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $47,000 Active 68 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 8/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥111°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,987
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,633
- − Property taxes
- −$705
- − Insurance
- −$235
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,119
- − Management
- −$1,119
- − Depreciation
- −$1,367
- Taxable income
- $6,809
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,634
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,518/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
75/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $5,280–$15,840 screening
This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, but some exterior and interior maintenance is needed to maximize its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Replace awnings — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
- Both Replace flooring — Modernizes the home and improves comfort ↑
- Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality ↑
- Both Update bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 17/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Desert Vista Elementary School
F
AZ #729/1,109
Nat'l #33,158/41,679
Middle
Cactus Canyon Junior High
F
AZ #151/218
Nat'l #12,406/14,009
High
Apache Junction High School
F
AZ #267/381
Nat'l #15,534/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
- NCES district ID
- 0400790
- Math proficiency
- 15% ▼ -17.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 20% ▼ -13.00%
- Median HH income
- $44,930
- Composite
- 15.34/100
- National rank
- #9325
- State rank
- #195 of 249 in AZ
C
Composite livability gradescore 66/100
Livability — Apache Junction
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #70
- US rank
- #11242
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime D+
Employment D-
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Pinal County · 437,574 people
- City population
- 56,611
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 25,420
- Household income
- $71,585
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 12% of renters
Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 437,574 people
- By 2030
- 446,903 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 452,589 · +3.4%
- By 2050
- 444,126 · +1.5%
- By 2075
- 430,300 · -1.7%
- By 2100
- 393,536 · -10.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 17%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 11%
Political lean MEDSL · Pinal
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -138.19%
- Current HPI
- 274.3808
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.57%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
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| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
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| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
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| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
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Price history
-21.5% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-21 Price Changed $47,000 ARMLS
- 2026-04-24 Price Changed $52,000 ARMLS
- 2026-03-27 Listed $59,900 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…