106 Holiday Trl · Piney, AR 71968

$289,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1970 1.30 ac lot $181/sqft · 23% below area Est $377k · 23% under ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Hamilton Lakefront. Hard to find 1.3 Acres on level lot to waters edge. Endless possibilities. Can be main home, summer home, RV park, cottages. Owner/Agent

Key facts

• Level lot
• 1.3 acres
• Waters edge

Tags

• LAKE HAMILTON LAKEFRONT
• 1.3 ACRES
• LEVEL LOT
• WATERS EDGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.3 acres; Approximately 1,600 square feet (source: tax records); Paved road access; Will not subdivide (No)
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA/community information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking (see remarks)
• Security: Security information not provided
• Utilities: Septic; Public water; Well; Electric service (municipal/Entergy)
• Home design: Frame exterior
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Rural property; Lake front; Has lake frontage on Hamilton

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details listed as 'other (see remarks)'
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Flooring listed as 'other (see remarks)'
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling listed as 'other (see remarks)'
• Interior features: Wood-burning stove; Other interior features (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-902 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (55.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (56.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (56.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 1.9% in Piney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#218 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,286 (56.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.35%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 19.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,745
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -23.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
343 Arrowhead Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,642 (+3%)	2mo	$375,000	$228	63
128 Riverside Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+6%)	1mo	$545,000	$321	62
1704 Thornton Ferry Rd	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,390 (-13%)	6mo	$170,000	$122	50
168 Riverside Dr	0.41mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,430 (-11%)	9mo	$375,000	$262	43
218 Anderson St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (-3%)	19mo	$169,000	$109	37
240 Lake Harbor Cir	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,380 (-14%)	9mo	$452,500	$328	32
247 Arrowhead Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,823 (+14%)	20mo	$623,038	$342	23
1115 Rock Creek Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,825 (+14%)	24mo	$299,000	$164	21
105 Dodson Ter Unit C	0.61mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,828 (+14%)	20mo	$427,000	$234	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $100,389
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $340,734
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71968

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 19.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,403/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-902

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,415

Max offer price $130,529

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2027-04-24
   listed $289,900 New Listing 161-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-04-28
    listed $289,900 Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Lake Hamilton Lakefront. Hard to find 1.3 Acres on level lot to waters edge. Endless possibilities. Can be main home, summer home, RV park, cottages. Owner/Agent

20. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $225,000
21. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $225,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Diamond in the Rough and On the Lake! Come see this fixer upper on Lake Hamilton. Several out buildings, and lots of potential. Home features an extra living room or bonus room, fireplace, and multiple carports for parking. There is lots of room to grow as property sits on over an acre in LHSD. This is a probate matter so make an offer and make it yours! All offers will be presented for the Estate's approval. Entergy does show a permit for a dock on file. Don't miss this investment opportunity!

22. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus $225,000

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Diamond in the Rough and On the Lake! Come see this fixer upper on Lake Hamilton. Several out buildings, and lots of potential. Home features an extra living room or bonus room, fireplace, and multiple carports for parking. There is lots of room to grow as property sits on over an acre in LHSD. This is a probate matter so make an offer and make it yours! All offers will be presented for the Estate's approval. Entergy does show a permit for a dock on file. Don't miss this investment opportunity!

23. 2022-06-09
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Diamond in the Rough and On the Lake! Come see this fixer upper on Lake Hamilton. Several out buildings, and lots of potential. Home features an extra living room or bonus room, fireplace, and multiple carports for parking. There is lots of room to grow as property sits on over an acre in LHSD. This is a probate matter so make an offer and make it yours! All offers will be presented for the Estate's approval. Entergy does show a permit for a dock on file. Don't miss this investment opportunity!

24. 2022-06-08
    listed $225,000
25. 2022-06-01
    price $225,000

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Diamond in the Rough and On the Lake! Come see this fixer upper on Lake Hamilton. Several out buildings, and lots of potential. Home features an extra living room or bonus room, fireplace, and multiple carports for parking. There is lots of room to grow as property sits on over an acre in LHSD. This is a probate matter so make an offer and make it yours! All offers will be presented for the Estate's approval. Entergy does show a permit for a dock on file. Don't miss this investment opportunity!

26. 2022-05-10
    price $299,000

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Diamond in the Rough and On the Lake! Come see this fixer upper on Lake Hamilton. Several out buildings, and lots of potential. Home features an extra living room or bonus room, fireplace, and multiple carports for parking. There is lots of room to grow as property sits on over an acre in LHSD. This is a probate matter so make an offer and make it yours! All offers will be presented for the Estate's approval. Entergy does show a permit for a dock on file. Don't miss this investment opportunity!

27. 2022-03-15
    price $330,000

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Diamond in the Rough and On the Lake! Come see this fixer upper on Lake Hamilton. Several out buildings, and lots of potential. Home features an extra living room or bonus room, fireplace, and multiple carports for parking. There is lots of room to grow as property sits on over an acre in LHSD. This is a probate matter so make an offer and make it yours! All offers will be presented for the Estate's approval. Entergy does show a permit for a dock on file. Don't miss this investment opportunity!

28. 2022-03-09
    listed $350,000 New Listing

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Diamond in the Rough and On the Lake! Come see this fixer upper on Lake Hamilton. Several out buildings, and lots of potential. Home features an extra living room or bonus room, fireplace, and multiple carports for parking. There is lots of room to grow as property sits on over an acre in LHSD. This is a probate matter so make an offer and make it yours! All offers will be presented for the Estate's approval. Entergy does show a permit for a dock on file. Don't miss this investment opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,403 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,403 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,403
• − Insurance: −$2,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$16,491
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,958
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Hamilton School District
• NCES district ID: 0508610
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,223
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4834
• State rank: #54 of 238 in AR

Livability — Piney

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #16742

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,578

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.79%
• Current HPI: 372.1719
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2027-04-24 Listed $289,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $289,900 HSBOR
• 2022-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-03 Sold (MLS) $225,000 HSBOR
• 2022-08-03 Sold (MLS) $225,000 CARMLS
• 2022-06-09 Pending — CARMLS
• 2022-06-08 Listed $225,000 HSBOR
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2022-05-10 Price Changed $299,000 CARMLS
• 2022-03-15 Price Changed $330,000 CARMLS
• 2022-03-09 Listed $350,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+18.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,403 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.