11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #254 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 89 Days on market

Built 1986 Good condition $45/sqft · 12% below area Est $85k · 12% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This VERY SPACIOUS HOME ! Is BEAUTIFUL! with A HUGE STORAGE ROOM that could be used for many hobbies or Craft workshop! with a closed In Arizona Room/Enclosed Patio. Also a BUILT IN BAR! to entertain guests. Corner Lot, Vaulted Ceilings, and Large Kitchen! Located In a 55+Gated Community. Come see this well maintained home!

Key facts

• Built in bar
• Arizona room
• Large kitchen

Tags

• HUGE STORAGE ROOM
• ARIZONA ROOM
• BUILT IN BAR
• CORNER LOT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $650 of equity ($518 loan paydown + $132 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.66%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,780
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -11.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+1%)	5mo	$122,000	$73	85
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+3%)	6mo	$50,000	$29	85
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,534 (-8%)	5mo	$73,500	$48	83
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-12%)	2mo	$80,000	$55	78
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	1mo	$120,000	$78	78
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-2%)	12mo	$149,900	$92	72
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #28	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,568 (-6%)	12mo	$34,000	$22	72
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #36	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,708 (+3%)	12mo	$135,000	$79	67
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #372	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-6%)	11mo	$93,000	$60	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #182	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-12%)	9mo	$70,000	$48	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-12%)	8mo	$74,000	$51	61
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #262	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-10%)	16mo	$125,000	$84	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $50,697
• Equity at exit: $22,413

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $108,476
• Equity at exit: $27,478

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $955	-5% $929	+0% $903	+5% $877	+10% $851
Rent	-10% $761	-5% $832	+0% $903	+5% $974	+10% $1,045
Rate	-1.0pp $941	-0.5pp $922	base $903	+0.5pp $883	+1.0pp $864

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	0.21mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	44d	1	0.25mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	44d	1	0.48mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	25d	1	0.57mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	25d	1	0.57mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	2d	1	0.64mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	13d	1	0.64mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	25d	1	0.67mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	0.67mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	25d	1	0.89mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	25d	1	0.90mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	44d	1	1.08mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	1.11mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	25d	2	1.12mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	2d	17	1.21mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,017	$2.15	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $74,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $74,900 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This VERY SPACIOUS HOME ! Is BEAUTIFUL! with A HUGE STORAGE ROOM that could be used for many hobbies or Craft workshop! with a closed In Arizona Room/Enclosed Patio. Also a BUILT IN BAR! to entertain guests. Corner Lot, Vaulted Ceilings, and Large Kitchen! Located In a 55+Gated Community. Come see this well maintained home!

15. 2026-03-20
    listed $89,900 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    This VERY SPACIOUS HOME ! Is BEAUTIFUL! with A HUGE STORAGE ROOM that could be used for many hobbies or Craft workshop! with a closed In Arizona Room/Enclosed Patio. Also a BUILT IN BAR! to entertain guests. Corner Lot, Vaulted Ceilings, and Large Kitchen! Located In a 55+Gated Community. Come see this well maintained home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $10,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,461
• After-tax cash flow: $8,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, spacious manufactured home in a 55+ gated community is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some interior updates to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both update ceiling fans — modern fans improve airflow and aesthetics
• Both install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — new flooring improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both install new cabinets in kitchen and bathrooms — new cabinets enhance aesthetics and storage
• Both install new countertops in kitchen and bathrooms — new countertops improve aesthetics and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both update ceiling fans — modern fans improve airflow and aesthetics ↑
• Both install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — new flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both install new cabinets in kitchen and bathrooms — new cabinets enhance aesthetics and storage ↑
• Both install new countertops in kitchen and bathrooms — new countertops improve aesthetics and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $74,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $89,900 ARMLS