10409 Upton Ave S · Bloomington, MN 55431

$275,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1955 0.27 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY WELL MAINTAINED RAMBLER!ONE OWNER HOME W/NEWER FURNACE,WATER HEATER ELECTRICAL SERVICE, ROOF! CEMENT PATIO. LEVEL LOT. HARDWOOD FLOORS. FRESHLY PAINTED.EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOL, SHOPPING, AND ROADS-MOVE IN CONDITION

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Attached 2-car garage (18 x 21)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level; Main-level entry
• Construction: Full basement
• Exterior features: Patio; City street frontage; Lot approximately 0.27 acres (85 x 136)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen window; Eat-in kitchen (includes dining area)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; Rough-in for additional bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Patio; 3 bedrooms on one level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-245/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Bloomington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#168 in MN, #3,640 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Bloomington Public School District (urban): math 35% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #192 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #534 of 857 statewide, top 66%, 353 students, 29% FRL); Oak Grove Middle (math 29% / reading 48%, grade F, #156 of 258 statewide, top 62%, 703 students, 45% FRL); Kennedy Senior High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #282 of 471 statewide, top 63%, 1,601 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 73 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 77% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $204k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $251,203 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-41,497
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-19,291
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55431

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,379/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,538

Max offer price $271,390

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $57	+0% $-20	+5% $-98	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-120	+0% $-20	+5% $79	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $50	base $-20	+0.5pp $-92	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   status $275,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 574-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $275,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,379 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,379 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,379
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bloomington Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2705790
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $63,279
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #4431
• State rank: #192 of 301 in MN

Livability — Bloomington

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #3640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bloomington, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 88,605
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 18,664
• Household income: $101,484
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -272.86%
• Current HPI: 234.9872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.66%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+34.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-11 Listed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-18 Sold (MLS) $204,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-07 Listed $204,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,379 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.