655 Robert St S · St. Paul, MN 55107

$194,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1901 7,492 sqft lot $150/sqft · 9% below area Est $214k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is being sold AS-IS. Seller will not make any repairs. Price reflects the condition of the home. Buyers and agents to verify measurements

Key facts

• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Built 1901
• Listed 122 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $171,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.79%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,586
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: -8.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $28,321
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $147,993
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55107

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,432/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $828	-5% $773	+0% $718	+5% $663	+10% $608
Rent	-10% $507	-5% $613	+0% $718	+5% $824	+10% $929
Rate	-1.0pp $816	-0.5pp $768	base $718	+0.5pp $668	+1.0pp $616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 Wyoming St E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0	1038	$2,599	$2.50	0d	1	0.43mi
45 Butler Ave E Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,688	$1.59	0d	9	1.00mi
111 Kellogg Blvd E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,783	$2.78	3d	20	1.43mi
180 E Kellogg Blvd St Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1436	$4,595	$3.20	0d	22	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $194,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2001-07-30
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,432 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,432 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$3,432
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,561
• − Management: −$2,561
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $5,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,415
• After-tax cash flow: $7,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,377
• Household income: $74,531
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Black 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.70%
• Current HPI: 298.8714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2001-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,432 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.