4113 Naples Ave · Erie, PA 16509

$249,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,548 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1976 7,841 sqft lot Est $195k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Multi-level home in a quiet neighborhood with lots of custom features. 1st floor includes living room w/ fireplace, kitchen w/ gas stovetop, dining room, bedroom, full bath and a den/office w/ access to the back yard and large skylighted patio. Second floor has (3) bedrooms, more communal space and another full bath. The finished lower level has a custom bar, a 1/2 bath, a laundry room, fireplace and room for a pool table. The 2 car attached garage has 2 hidden work spaces for the handyman.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop kitchen
• Custom bar
• Skylit patio

Tags

• GAS COOKTOP KITCHEN
• SKYLIT PATIO
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• CUSTOM BAR
• HIDDEN WORKSHOP SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Multi/split level; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Covered patio; Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window coverings and drapes; Pellet stove fireplace; Finished basement; 15 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($853/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Grover Cleveland El Sch (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,211 of 1,518 statewide, top 80%, 554 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $236,996 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3926 Wood St	0.25mi	4/1.5	1,656 (+7%)	3mo	$175,000	$106	70
717 W 40th St	0.14mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,668 (+8%)	6mo	$289,000	$173	66
3929 Davenport Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,628 (+5%)	7mo	$120,000	$74	64
606 Hilltop Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-9%)	4mo	$80,000	$57	58
136 Brighton Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (-9%)	5mo	$202,500	$144	53
1142 W Gore Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,410 (-9%)	1mo	$305,000	$216	50
3509 Maple St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,438 (-7%)	3mo	$118,000	$82	50
4430 Harding Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-10%)	9mo	$236,000	$170	50
1351 W 41st St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,464 (-5%)	6mo	$184,000	$126	47
460 W Gore Rd	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,766 (+14%)	5mo	$325,000	$184	44
3325 Maple St	0.69mi	4/1.5	1,414 (-9%)	7mo	$150,000	$106	44
925 W 33rd St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,386 (-10%)	5mo	$168,000	$121	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,885
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-25,087
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,639/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,280

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $142	+0% $71	+5% $0	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-23	+0% $71	+5% $165	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $197	-0.5pp $135	base $71	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	45d	1	0.94mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.01mi
2702 Raspberry St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,200	$0.60	45d	1	1.11mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2021-11-18
   soldstatus $182,500
4. 2021-11-17
   soldstatus $182,500 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Multi-level home in a quiet neighborhood with lots of custom features. 1st floor includes living room w/ fireplace, kitchen w/ gas stovetop, dining room, bedroom, full bath and a den/office w/ access to the back yard and large skylighted patio. Second floor has (3) bedrooms, more communal space and another full bath. The finished lower level has a custom bar, a 1/2 bath, a laundry room, fireplace and room for a pool table. The 2 car attached garage has 2 hidden work spaces for the handyman.

5. 2021-10-05
   listed $179,900 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   Multi-level home in a quiet neighborhood with lots of custom features. 1st floor includes living room w/ fireplace, kitchen w/ gas stovetop, dining room, bedroom, full bath and a den/office w/ access to the back yard and large skylighted patio. Second floor has (3) bedrooms, more communal space and another full bath. The finished lower level has a custom bar, a 1/2 bath, a laundry room, fireplace and room for a pool table. The 2 car attached garage has 2 hidden work spaces for the handyman.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,639 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,639 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,639
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$784
• After-tax cash flow: $1,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+38.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $249,900 GEBOR
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-17 Sold (MLS) $182,500 GEBOR
• 2021-10-05 Listed $179,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,639 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.