1040 Windermere Dr · Willoughby, OH 44094

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1943 2,905 sqft lot Est $161k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 Br Bungalow W/ Woodburning Fireplace 1-1/2 Car Garage/Larger Than Double Lot. Quite Street On Lake. Fenced In Yard. Listing Agent Michelle Fuerst 944-3676

Key facts

• Renovated cape cod
• New water heater
• Kitchen cabinets

Tags

• RENOVATED CAPE COD
• DOUBLE BUILDABLE LOT
• NEW FORCED AIR FURNACE
• HEAT SOURCE IN BEDROOMS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.8% in Willoughby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#249 in OH, #3,972 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Willoughby-Eastlake City (suburban): math 42% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #434 of 656 in OH (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 448 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.90%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,545
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1040 Windermere Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,155 (0%)	2mo	$155,000	$134	94
1068 Elmwood Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-4%)	7mo	$160,000	$145	84
967 Windermere Dr	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,196 (+4%)	8mo	$185,000	$155	81
1171 Garden Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,135 (-2%)	3mo	$185,000	$163	69
908 Peach Blvd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-11%)	2mo	$196,000	$191	69
1053 Eaglewood Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-8%)	8mo	$116,000	$109	64
908 Hayes Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,007 (-13%)	9mo	$140,000	$139	63
766 Cherokee Trl	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-6%)	3mo	$100,000	$93	54
700 Cherokee Trl	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (+3%)	7mo	$159,000	$133	51
6399 Seminole Trl	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,010 (-13%)	4mo	$135,000	$134	42
635 Tioga Trl	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-13%)	1mo	$100,000	$100	37
688 Tioga Trl	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-13%)	12mo	$180,000	$180	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,473
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $15,718
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44094

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,499/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38280 North Ln Unit J-208 Willoughby, OH	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	24d	1	0.46mi
38280 North Ln Unit H-206 Willoughby, OH	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	0.46mi
38360 Tamarac Blvd Willoughby, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,835	$1.93	2d	29	0.70mi
6177 Iroquois Trl Mentor, OH	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,700	$1.52	2d	1	0.82mi
6247 Seneca Rd Mentor, OH	3.0	1.0	912	$1,750	$1.92	2d	1	0.83mi
123 Plymouth Rd Eastlake, OH	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,881	$1.34	44d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2025-09-08
   historical
4. 2025-06-09
   status Active
5. 2025-06-06
   status Pending
6. 2025-05-11
   status Active
7. 2025-05-08
   status Pending
8. 2025-04-17
   price $150,000
9. 2025-04-08
   listed $170,000 Active
10. 2022-09-06
    soldstatus $40,000
11. 1994-02-20
    soldstatus $72,000 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Charming 3 Br Bungalow W/ Woodburning Fireplace 1-1/2 Car Garage/Larger Than Double Lot. Quite Street On Lake. Fenced In Yard. Listing Agent Michelle Fuerst 944-3676

12. 1994-02-15
    historical 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Charming 3 Br Bungalow W/ Woodburning Fireplace 1-1/2 Car Garage/Larger Than Double Lot. Quite Street On Lake. Fenced In Yard. Listing Agent Michelle Fuerst 944-3676

13. 1994-02-15
    soldstatus $72,000

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Charming 3 Br Bungalow W/ Woodburning Fireplace 1-1/2 Car Garage/Larger Than Double Lot. Quite Street On Lake. Fenced In Yard. Listing Agent Michelle Fuerst 944-3676

14. 1993-08-12
    listed $74,990 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Charming 3 Br Bungalow W/ Woodburning Fireplace 1-1/2 Car Garage/Larger Than Double Lot. Quite Street On Lake. Fenced In Yard. Listing Agent Michelle Fuerst 944-3676

15. 1987-04-24
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,499 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,499 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,499
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willoughby-Eastlake City
• NCES district ID: 3904510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,500
• Composite: 42.96/100
• National rank: #3110
• State rank: #434 of 656 in OH

Livability — Willoughby

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #3972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willoughby, OH
• County: Lake County · 204,927 people
• City population: 36,873
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 36,873
• Household income: $78,772
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1381.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,022 people
• By 2030: 228,151 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 221,018 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 212,754 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 200,309 · -12.9%
• By 2100: 183,315 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.8pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.7 2008: D+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.28%
• Current HPI: 179.81
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+240.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-02-10 Listed $150,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-06-09 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-06-06 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-05-11 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-05-08 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $150,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-04-08 Listed $170,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-20 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MLSNOW
• 1994-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-15 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1993-08-12 Listed $74,990 MLSNOW
• 1987-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,499 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.