2800 S White Mountain Rd #108 · Show Low, AZ 85901

$39,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 238 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition $56/sqft · 87% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape the Heat and Enjoy Your Own Cozy Retreat in the Beautiful White Mountains of Northern Arizona. Backing National Forest in the 55+, Centrally Located Timberland Mobile Home Park, this 700 SF Remodeled Park Model has an Added Office and Laundry/ Bonus Room with Washer & Dryer. The Unit has a Propane Heater and Window AC for Comfortable Year Round Living. Furnished and Ready to Move In. There is also a Separate 55+ Clubhouse with Washers, Dryers and Showers if ever needed.

Key facts

• National forest
• Laundry craft room
• Remodeled park model

Tags

• NATIONAL FOREST
• REMODELED PARK MODEL
• ADDED OFFICE
• LAUNDRY CRAFT ROOM
• PROPANE HEATER
• AIRCONDITIONER WINDOW UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $34,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.49%
• DSCR: 5.34
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,273
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -87.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3860 S White Mountain Rd	0.67mi	1/1.0	695 (-1%)	7mo	$31,000	$45	62
2800 S White Mountain Rd #125	0.00mi	1/1.0	800 (+14%)	24mo	$115,000	$144	56
3860 S White Mountain Rd	0.58mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (+12%)	1mo	$65,000	$83	47
3860 S White Mountain Rd #92	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (-4%)	23mo	$36,500	$54	38
3851 Vacation Village Dr #416	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	735 (+5%)	19mo	$260,000	$354	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 98.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $50,208
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.67×
• Total profit: $116,570
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $39,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 218 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $49,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Escape the Heat and Enjoy Your Own Cozy Retreat in the Beautiful White Mountains of Northern Arizona. Backing National Forest in the 55+, Centrally Located Timberland Mobile Home Park, this 700 SF Remodeled Park Model has an Added Office and Laundry/ Bonus Room with Washer & Dryer. The Unit has a Propane Heater and Window AC for Comfortable Year Round Living. Furnished and Ready to Move In. There is also a Separate 55+ Clubhouse with Washers, Dryers and Showers if ever needed.

18. 2025-11-07
    price $59,900 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Escape the Heat and Enjoy Your Own Cozy Retreat in the Beautiful White Mountains of Northern Arizona. Backing National Forest in the 55+, Centrally Located Timberland Mobile Home Park, this 700 SF Remodeled Park Model has an Added Office and Laundry/ Bonus Room with Washer & Dryer. The Unit has a Propane Heater and Window AC for Comfortable Year Round Living. Furnished and Ready to Move In. There is also a Separate 55+ Clubhouse with Washers, Dryers and Showers if ever needed.

19. 2025-10-24
    listed $64,500 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Escape the Heat and Enjoy Your Own Cozy Retreat in the Beautiful White Mountains of Northern Arizona. Backing National Forest in the 55+, Centrally Located Timberland Mobile Home Park, this 700 SF Remodeled Park Model has an Added Office and Laundry/ Bonus Room with Washer & Dryer. The Unit has a Propane Heater and Window AC for Comfortable Year Round Living. Furnished and Ready to Move In. There is also a Separate 55+ Clubhouse with Washers, Dryers and Showers if ever needed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $10,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,558
• After-tax cash flow: $8,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with some cosmetic repairs needed. Painting the exterior and replacing the carpet would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered and discolored
• Minor Landscaping — Some plants need trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Some plants need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $49,000 WMMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $59,900 WMMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $64,500 WMMLS