16315 Lone Star Ranch Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1999 1.00 ac lot $130/sqft · 5% above area Est $166k · 5% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 16315 Lone Star Ranch Dr, Conroe, TX 77302! Nestled in a peaceful and established community, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience. Featuring a well-designed floor plan, the property includes a spacious living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining, a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace, and comfortable bedrooms with plenty of natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-242 and I-45, this home offers a quick commute to shopping and dining, and is situated in an ideal Lonestar Ranch neighborhood with easy access to Conroe, The Woodlands, Humble, and Kingwood. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a desirable location—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 10194% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,304
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 5.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16327 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	2mo	$189,000	$141	95
16316 Lone Corral Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$179,999	$134	93
16535 Bunny Hill Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$155,000	$115	90
16530 Leafy Meadow Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	9mo	$165,000	$123	81
16337 Lone Corral Ct	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$165,000	$123	81
16517 Leafy Meadow Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$165,000	$123	80
16540 Desert Star Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	7mo	$145,900	$109	76
16524 Desert Star Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$155,000	$115	75
16092 Nikita Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$175,000	$130	72
16237 Sunny Morning Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$194,900	$145	68
16263 Kanani Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	6mo	$164,900	$123	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,819
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $23,599
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,422/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $378	+0% $328	+5% $279	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $251	+0% $328	+5% $406	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $416	-0.5pp $373	base $328	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	44d	1	1.08mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	25d	1	1.20mi
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	0d	13	1.24mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Pending 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Pending 48 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Welcome to 16315 Lone Star Ranch Dr, Conroe, TX 77302! Nestled in a peaceful and established community, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience. Featuring a well-designed floor plan, the property includes a spacious living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining, a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace, and comfortable bedrooms with plenty of natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-242 and I-45, this home offers a quick commute to shopping and dining, and is situated in an ideal Lonestar Ranch neighborhood with easy access to Conroe, The Woodlands, Humble, and Kingwood. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a desirable location—schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-04-13
   listed $1,700
6. 2026-04-12
   status Active 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Welcome to 16315 Lone Star Ranch Dr, Conroe, TX 77302! Nestled in a peaceful and established community, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience. Featuring a well-designed floor plan, the property includes a spacious living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining, a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace, and comfortable bedrooms with plenty of natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-242 and I-45, this home offers a quick commute to shopping and dining, and is situated in an ideal Lonestar Ranch neighborhood with easy access to Conroe, The Woodlands, Humble, and Kingwood. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a desirable location—schedule your showing today!

7. 2026-04-10
   status Pending 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Welcome to 16315 Lone Star Ranch Dr, Conroe, TX 77302! Nestled in a peaceful and established community, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience. Featuring a well-designed floor plan, the property includes a spacious living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining, a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace, and comfortable bedrooms with plenty of natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-242 and I-45, this home offers a quick commute to shopping and dining, and is situated in an ideal Lonestar Ranch neighborhood with easy access to Conroe, The Woodlands, Humble, and Kingwood. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a desirable location—schedule your showing today!

8. 2026-04-09
   historical $1,700
9. 2026-04-08
   status Pending 784-char remark

   Show marketing remark (784 chars)

   Welcome to 16315 Lone Star Ranch Dr, Conroe, TX 77302! Nestled in a peaceful and established community, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience. Featuring a well-designed floor plan, the property includes a spacious living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining, a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace, and comfortable bedrooms with plenty of natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-242 and I-45, this home offers a quick commute to shopping and dining, and is situated in an ideal Lonestar Ranch neighborhood with easy access to Conroe, The Woodlands, Humble, and Kingwood. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a desirable location—schedule your showing today!

10. 2026-03-31
    listed $1,700
11. 2026-03-30
    listed $175,000 Active 784-char remark

    Show marketing remark (784 chars)

    Welcome to 16315 Lone Star Ranch Dr, Conroe, TX 77302! Nestled in a peaceful and established community, this charming home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and convenience. Featuring a well-designed floor plan, the property includes a spacious living area ideal for relaxing or entertaining, a bright kitchen with ample cabinetry and workspace, and comfortable bedrooms with plenty of natural light. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-242 and I-45, this home offers a quick commute to shopping and dining, and is situated in an ideal Lonestar Ranch neighborhood with easy access to Conroe, The Woodlands, Humble, and Kingwood. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a well-maintained home in a desirable location—schedule your showing today!

12. 2025-12-15
    soldstatus
13. 2009-10-28
    historical
14. 2009-10-02
    listed $59,900
15. 2007-07-26
    historical
16. 2007-07-23
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,422 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$780/yr (+$65/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,422
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,238
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$297
• After-tax cash flow: $3,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-10-02 Listed $59,900 HARMLS
• 2007-07-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-07-23 Listed $59,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,422 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.