15026 Richmond · Victorville, CA 92394

$325,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1962 2.03 ac lot Est $355k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs some TLC but has potential. Wood burning stove in living room; ceiling fan; has small room off of dining which can be a small family room or office; above ground pool with work on the deck will be great for the hot summer days. A little over 2 acres just a block off of Hwy 395. Will not go FHA, but owner will carry depending on offer.

Key facts

• 2.03 acre lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 106 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 3135341150000
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Single-story house; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built (per assessor); No common walls
• Exterior features: House; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Main entrance; One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Main level has 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-117/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $260k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,818 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $354,510
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15074 Richmond Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,170 (0%)	12mo	$265,000	$226	88
15024 Carrolton St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-5%)	1mo	$371,000	$334	61
11735 Star	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-5%)	1mo	$385,000	$347	60
11791 Wolcott St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-5%)	19mo	$375,000	$338	48
11882 Star St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+14%)	7mo	$400,000	$299	47
11755 Star St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,110 (-5%)	19mo	$378,000	$341	46
11850 Star St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+14%)	12mo	$405,000	$303	42
11800 wolcott	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+14%)	7mo	$390,000	$291	38
11721 Virginia	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+14%)	3mo	$400,000	$299	37
11836 Stockton St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+14%)	13mo	$395,000	$295	34
11745 Stockton St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+14%)	11mo	$400,000	$299	31
11806 STAR St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,338 (+14%)	16mo	$420,000	$314	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-43,751
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $3,119
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92394

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,239/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,670

Max offer price $323,284

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14513 Palm St Adelanto, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	1d	1	1.14mi
11028 Pemberton Way Adelanto, CA	3.0	2.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $325,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $325,000
15. 2026-03-04
    listed $352,000 Active
16. 2026-02-14
    historical $352,000
17. 2024-12-30
    historical
18. 2024-11-23
    price $374,999
19. 2024-10-22
    price $399,900
20. 2024-09-28
    listed $420,000 Active
21. 2024-05-06
    soldstatus $260,000
22. 2003-02-21
    soldstatus $80,000 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Needs some TLC but has potential. Wood burning stove in living room; ceiling fan; has small room off of dining which can be a small family room or office; above ground pool with work on the deck will be great for the hot summer days. A little over 2 acres just a block off of Hwy 395. Will not go FHA, but owner will carry depending on offer.

23. 2003-02-21
    soldstatus $80,000

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Needs some TLC but has potential. Wood burning stove in living room; ceiling fan; has small room off of dining which can be a small family room or office; above ground pool with work on the deck will be great for the hot summer days. A little over 2 acres just a block off of Hwy 395. Will not go FHA, but owner will carry depending on offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,239
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,552
• − Management: −$2,552
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$5,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $1,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Valley Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636972
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $45,112
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8296
• State rank: #407 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,614
• Household income: $78,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1485.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% Two or more races 24% Black 20% White 15% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 38% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Current HPI: 384.3185
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.46%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+306.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $352,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Coming Soon $352,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $374,999 CRMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $399,900 CRMLS
• 2024-09-28 Listed $420,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-21 Sold (MLS) $80,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,239 · +139.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.