13021 Maidenhair Trl · Elgin, TX 78621

$245,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 241 Days on market

Built 2003 4,800 sqft lot $140/sqft · 18% below area Est $298k · 18% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With this low price point, the possibilities for this home are endless. You get 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a community loaded with amenities like a pool, playground, and walking trails. The neighborhood also offers quick access to the highway, making your daily commute a breeze.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elgin El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 847 students, 84% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,492 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,880
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -17.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17913 Honey Locust Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,668 (-5%)	2mo	$245,000	$147	77
17813 Boardtree Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,684 (-4%)	3mo	$232,990	$138	72
13520 Knights Branch Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (-8%)	2mo	$230,000	$144	66
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-5%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	64
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-5%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	64
12612 Wayne Spur Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,838 (+5%)	3mo	$209,500	$114	63
17920 Honey Locust Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-11%)	5mo	$234,900	$150	61
23813 Glowing Embers Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+8%)	1mo	$258,999	$137	60
12804 Sago Palm Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-12%)	10mo	$250,000	$163	52
23616 Tiny Moons Way	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-8%)	2mo	$252,990	$158	46
23712 Tiny Moons Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-8%)	11mo	$279,990	$175	41
23625 Tiny Moons Way	0.72mi	4/2.5	1,954 (+12%)	10mo	$297,790	$152	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $119,263
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $363,572
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$501 /mo · $6,011/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $204,492

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-91	-5% $-160	+0% $-229	+5% $-299	+10% $-368
Rent	-10% $-399	-5% $-314	+0% $-229	+5% $-145	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-167	base $-229	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.09mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	18d	1	0.10mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.10mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.20mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.22mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.24mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.25mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.27mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	0.28mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	0.31mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.43mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.43mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	0.77mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	22d	1	0.85mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	19d	1	0.86mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	0.86mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	45d	1	0.89mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 241 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $245,000 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    With this low price point, the possibilities for this home are endless. You get 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a community loaded with amenities like a pool, playground, and walking trails. The neighborhood also offers quick access to the highway, making your daily commute a breeze.

16. 2025-10-24
    listed $249,990 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    With this low price point, the possibilities for this home are endless. You get 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a community loaded with amenities like a pool, playground, and walking trails. The neighborhood also offers quick access to the highway, making your daily commute a breeze.

17. 2024-06-17
    price
18. 2024-05-22
    price
19. 2024-04-03
    listed Active
20. 2023-04-26
    price
21. 2023-03-09
    price
22. 2023-01-11
    listed Active
23. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus
24. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2020-11-18
    status Pending
26. 2020-11-07
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2020-10-29
    listed $210,000 Active
28. 2017-01-31
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2017-01-31
    soldstatus
30. 2016-12-09
    status Pending - Taking Backups
31. 2016-11-30
    price $167,000
32. 2016-11-12
    listed $169,500 Active
33. 2016-06-12
    historical Withdrawn
34. 2016-05-11
    listed Active
35. 2004-12-14
    soldstatus
36. 2004-11-22
    historical
37. 2004-08-06
    listed $121,110

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,011 · $501/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,011 · $501/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$6,011
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,060
• − Management: −$2,060
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,655
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+102.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $245,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $249,990 Unlock MLS
• 2024-06-17 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-03 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-04-26 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-03-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-01-11 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2020-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-21 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-11-18 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-11-07 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2020-10-29 Listed $210,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-31 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2016-12-09 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2016-11-30 Price Changed $167,000 Unlock MLS
• 2016-11-12 Listed $169,500 Unlock MLS
• 2016-06-12 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2016-05-11 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2004-12-14 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2004-11-22 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2004-08-06 Listed $121,110 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,011 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.