264 Ponce De Leon Dr #264 · Winter Springs, FL
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.3/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +8.3/10.0
- 1% rule +6.6/10.0
- Schools +5.2/10.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Rent growth +3.4/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -6.0
$137,500
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Brand-new 2026 Home - The Riviera - offering modern design and quality craftsmanship throughout. This beautifully appointed residence features recessed lighting, elegant crown molding, and luxury plank flooring that flows seamlessly through the home. The stylish kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, creating a sleek and functional space for everyday living and entertaining. A decorative glass entry door adds a welcoming touch, while the screened porch provides the perfect spot to relax and enjoy the outdoors year-round.
Key facts
- Modern design
- Recessed lighting
- Plank flooring
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
- Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.7% in Winter Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#261 in FL, #4,187 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
- Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Layer Elementary School (math 54% / reading 61%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 608 students, 55% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 60% / reading 60%, grade B, #135 of 571 statewide, top 24%, 1,197 students, 44% FRL); Winter Springs High School (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,038 students, 47% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 368 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.16% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.02%
- Cash-on-cash
- 9.73%
- DSCR
- 1.43
- GRM
- 7.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $206,479
- List price
- $137,500
- Delta
- -33.41%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 9 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 307 Cello Cir | 0.54mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,551 (-1%) | 0mo | $365,000 | $235 | 68 |
| 405 N Hawthorn Cir | 0.55mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,656 (+6%) | 1mo | $318,000 | $192 | 59 |
| 143 Hayes Rd | 0.65mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,649 (+5%) | 1mo | $445,000 | $270 | 55 |
| 239 Panorama Dr | 0.36mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,349 (-14%) | 0mo | $330,000 | $245 | 55 |
| 510 Green Spring Cir | 0.39mi | 2/2.5 | 1,180 (-25%) | 0mo | $202,000 | $171 | 55 |
| 477 Green Spring Cir | 0.30mi | 3/1.5 (+1) | 1,280 (-18%) | 1mo | $225,000 | $176 | 53 |
| 339 Inglenook Cir | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,437 (-8%) | 0mo | $359,000 | $250 | 51 |
| 1562 Grand Rue Dr | 1.21mi | 3/2.5 (+1) | 1,498 (-4%) | 0mo | $335,000 | $224 | 50 |
| 740 Galloway Ct | 1.35mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,692 (+8%) | 1mo | $410,000 | $242 | 46 |
| 140 N Fairfax | 0.43mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,188 (-24%) | 1mo | $305,000 | $257 | 45 |
| 203 Sweetgum | 0.55mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,218 (-22%) | 0mo | $380,000 | $312 | 44 |
| 240 N Devon Ave | 0.53mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,238 (-21%) | 1mo | $332,000 | $268 | 44 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -1.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.96×
- Total profit
- $-1,435
- Equity at exit
- $20,502
- IRR
- 9.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.74×
- Total profit
- $28,345
- Equity at exit
- $11,888
Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 21 active
- Months of supply
- 126.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $135,500 ($110/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 42 d
- This list price
- 95% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +19.7% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 32708
- Rents YoY
- 3.6%
- Active inventory
- 368
- Price-to-rent
- 7.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,598 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$721
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$172 /mo · $2,062/yr
- Insurance
- −$57
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$336
- Net cashflow
- $312
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $407 | -5% $360 | +0% $312 | +5% $265 | +10% $217 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $186 | -5% $249 | +0% $312 | +5% $375 | +10% $438 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $381 | -0.5pp $347 | base $312 | +0.5pp $277 | +1.0pp $240 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $34,375
- Closing costs
- $4,125
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109 N Alderwood St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1458 | $2,150 | $1.47 | 87d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 224 Bitterwood St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1580 | $2,299 | $1.46 | 87d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 224 Bitterwood St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1580 | $2,299 | $1.46 | 94d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 477 Green Spring Cir Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1280 | $1,900 | $1.48 | 7d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 228 Bitterwood St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1887 | $2,100 | $1.11 | 43d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 44 S Cortez Ave Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1320 | $2,295 | $1.74 | 70d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 44 S Cortez Ave Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1320 | $2,275 | $1.72 | 23d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 44 S Cortez Ave Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1320 | $2,395 | $1.81 | 98d | 1 | 0.33mi |
| 495 Green Spring Cir Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1375 | $1,900 | $1.38 | 84d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 526 Seasons Ct Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1161 | $2,295 | $1.98 | 30d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 226 Panorama Dr Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,750 | $1.59 | 100d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 119 Sundance Ct Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1161 | $1,995 | $1.72 | 4d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 118 Sundance Ct Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1161 | $2,149 | $1.85 | 94d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 213 Buttonwood Ave Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1232 | $1,975 | $1.60 | 30d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 200 Panorama Dr Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1600 | $1,600 | $1.00 | 110d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 114 Cory Ln Winter Springs, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1090 | $1,395 | $1.28 | 110d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 404 Lancers Dr Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1406 | $2,400 | $1.71 | 106d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 404 Lancers Dr Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1406 | $2,400 | $1.71 | 110d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 404 San Gabriel St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1089 | $1,900 | $1.74 | 76d | 1 | 0.54mi |
| 317 San Gabriel St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $1,900 | $1.73 | 119d | 1 | 0.55mi |
| 305 Cello Cir Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1308 | $2,225 | $1.70 | 108d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 202 Perth Ct Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1247 | $1,900 | $1.52 | 10d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 216 Bennett St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1120 | $1,695 | $1.51 | 82d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 424 Lancers Dr Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $2,460 | $1.64 | 3d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 222 Albert St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1087 | $1,995 | $1.84 | 74d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 222 Albert St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1087 | $1,995 | $1.84 | 40d | 1 | 0.60mi |
| 312 Riunite Cir Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1269 | $2,140 | $1.69 | 29d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 105 Keith Ct Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1457 | $2,150 | $1.48 | 98d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 502 San Gabriel Ct Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1187 | $2,050 | $1.73 | 40d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 502 San Gabriel Ct Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1187 | $2,050 | $1.73 | 23d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 337 Riunite Cir Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $2,200 | $1.47 | 74d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 616 David St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1108 | $1,795 | $1.62 | 10d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 421 S Hawthorn Cir Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1052 | $2,070 | $1.97 | 100d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 500 George St Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1123 | $1,800 | $1.60 | 43d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 614 Sailfish Rd Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1466 | $2,195 | $1.50 | 6d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 407 Sheoah Blvd #9 Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1400 | $1,600 | $1.14 | 87d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 411 Sheoah Blvd #43 Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1400 | $1,999 | $1.43 | 10d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 475 Macgregor Rd Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2057 | $2,500 | $1.22 | 84d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 475 Macgregor Rd Unit NA Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2057 | $2,500 | $1.22 | 72d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 423 Sheoah Blvd #14 Winter Springs, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1187 | $1,750 | $1.47 | 43d | 1 | 0.90mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info
- List price $137,500
Exterior
- Utilities
- Has heating
- Home design
- Spec new construction, plan name The Riviera
- Exterior features
- Address: 264 Ponce De Leon Dr #264, Winter Springs, FL 32708
Interior
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heating
- Interior features
- Living area approximately 1,568
Listing history 33 events
-
2026-07-14days on market $137,500 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $137,500 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $137,500 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $137,500 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $137,500 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $137,500 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $137,500 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $137,500 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $137,500 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $137,500 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $137,500 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $137,500 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $137,500 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $137,500 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $137,500 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $137,500 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $137,500 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $137,500 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $137,500 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $137,500 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $137,500 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $137,500 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $137,500 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $137,500 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $137,500 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $137,500 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $137,500 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $137,500 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $137,500 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $137,500 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $137,500 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $137,500 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $137,500 Active 89 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $19,176
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,702
- − Property taxes
- −$2,062
- − Insurance
- −$688
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,534
- − Management
- −$1,534
- − Depreciation
- −$4,000
- Taxable income
- $1,656
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$397
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,349/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos
This brand-new 2026 manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern design and quality craftsmanship. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
- Resale Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Seminole
- NCES district ID
- 1201710
- Math proficiency
- 57% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,478
- Composite
- 51.05/100
- National rank
- #1769
- State rank
- #13 of 73 in FL
Livability — Winter Springs
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #261
- US rank
- #4187
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Winter Springs, FL
- County
- Seminole County · 515,494 people
- City population
- 48,965
- Metro
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 48,965
- Household income
- $93,628
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 11% of renters
Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 515,494 people
- By 2030
- 545,713 · +5.9%
- By 2040
- 598,068 · +16.0%
- By 2050
- 640,663 · +24.3%
- By 2075
- 724,461 · +40.5%
- By 2100
- 755,530 · +46.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Majority White (63%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 77% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Seminole
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -188.76%
- Current HPI
- 308.2797
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.58%
- Metro
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…