164 Camino Rio · Toms River, NJ 08755

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Good condition $214/sqft · 30% above area Est $150k · 30% over $586/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently remodeled and maintained in impeccable condition, this beautiful double-wide home offers stylish, move-in ready living. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 updated bathrooms, the home showcases a brand new roof, updated flooring, modern kitchen, new appliances and light fixtures, and fresh paint throughout. A versatile attached storage area presents the opportunity to easily create a third bedroom, home office, or flex space to suit your needs. Enjoy outdoor living with a spacious front porch featuring a brand new vinyl deck, plus a rear patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a storage shed and an oversized driveway for ample parking. Ideally located near shopping, restaurants, and just a short drive to the Jersey Shore's beautiful beaches, this home offers an affordable lifestyle without compromising on comfort or convenience.

Key facts

• Pool
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 30.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Camino Roble	0.01mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (+7%)	3mo	$150,000	$155	77
2102 Massachusetts Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (+15%)	6mo	$475,000	$455	47
342 Stuart Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (+14%)	10mo	$381,250	$368	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,791
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,396
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,615 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$586
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,448

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $199	+0% $132	+5% $65	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $29	+0% $132	+5% $235	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $182	base $132	+0.5pp $81	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	8d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $586 · $7,032/yr
• Likely covers: cable

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-10
   listed $195,000 Active 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Recently remodeled and maintained in impeccable condition, this beautiful double-wide home offers stylish, move-in ready living. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 updated bathrooms, the home showcases a brand new roof, updated flooring, modern kitchen, new appliances and light fixtures, and fresh paint throughout. A versatile attached storage area presents the opportunity to easily create a third bedroom, home office, or flex space to suit your needs. Enjoy outdoor living with a spacious front porch featuring a brand new vinyl deck, plus a rear patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a storage shed and an oversized driveway for ample parking. Ideally located near shopping, restaurants, and just a short drive to the Jersey Shore's beautiful beaches, this home offers an affordable lifestyle without compromising on comfort or convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − HOA: −$7,032
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $1,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready double-wide home offers stylish updates and a spacious layout, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both storage shed — creates additional storage and potential third bedroom
• Both new outdoor lighting — improves safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both storage shed — creates additional storage and potential third bedroom ↑
• Both new outdoor lighting — improves safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $195,000 MOMLS