29947 Morningmist Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1999 6,600 sqft lot Est $355k · 44% under $176/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An ABSOLUTELY STUNNING MODEL PERFECT BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED 4 bedroom 2 bath HEATED SPA & POOL home located on 2 PRIVATELY PEACEFUL PONDS. The Sellers SPARED NO EXPENSE on the TONS OF UPGRADES includ. GOURMET kit. w/ beautiful GRANITE, TILE(see addtl remks), TILE BACKSPLASH, NEW BOSCH ultra quiet dishwasher, FABULOUS easy-to-maintain PORCELAIN TILE THROUGHOUT ALL LIVING AREAS, WET AREAS and MASTER (installed withing the past 1 1/2 years!)! This is the CADILLAC of homes with a GORGEOUS MASTER BATH w/ EUROPEAN SHOWER TOWER, UPGRADED FIXTURES, TILE COUNTERTOPS, DOUBLE SINKS! ARCHITECTURAL NICHES ABOUND; Fresh NEUTRAL DESIGNER DECORATOR Interior Paint; SOARING HIGH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LIVING AREA! Exterior paint 1 year new too!; OVERSIZED A/C system (an UPGRADE!); Pre-plumbed for water softener (Water Softener does not convey); Security system; Lush TROPICAL landscaping surrounds this beauty which sits on a gorgeous premium POND (2 ponds) lot! THE POOL, SPA & LANAI area are FABULOUS! What a placeto escape to! Fenced for privacy!; Satellite dish conveys and AVAILABLE FOR NEGOTIATION is a NEW 37" LCD built-in PANASONIC TV! AWESOME!!!! UPGRADED LIGHT FIXTURES, CEILING FANS TOO!RECLAIMED WATER for the sprinkler system saves you $$$! METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED this one is MOVE-IN READY! As SPECTACULAR AS THIS ONE SHOWS, IT WILL BE GONE QUICKLY!!!

Key facts

• 6,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees $2,112
• Financial info: Other annual assessment of $1,542; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Meadow Pointe CDD community with required monthly HOA of $176; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One story; Faces southeast; Located in a PUD
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.15-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; In-ground private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sand Pine Elementary School (math 68% / reading 69%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 522 students, 40% FRL); Dr. John Long Middle School (math 75% / reading 62%, grade A, #72 of 571 statewide, top 13%, 1,349 students, 28% FRL); Wiregrass Ranch High School (math 60% / reading 69%, grade B-, #78 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,114 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pasco average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100; list at $200k implies a 199900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $354,645
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29724 Bright Ray Pl	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,665 (0%)	2mo	$385,000	$231	89
1737 Sassafras Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+1%)	4mo	$325,000	$193	84
1627 Sassafras Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+2%)	3mo	$302,500	$178	79
1824 Echo Pond Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,567 (-6%)	3mo	$334,000	$213	71
1743 Walcott St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+10%)	3mo	$340,000	$186	59
1600 Firewheel Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-3%)	8mo	$345,000	$213	58
1624 Maximilian Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,784 (+7%)	7mo	$385,000	$216	51
29529 Crossland Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (+8%)	4mo	$395,000	$221	46
29430 Sea Dahlia Pass	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,827 (+10%)	1mo	$400,000	$219	45
30512 Wrencrest Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,822 (+9%)	4mo	$407,000	$223	44
30609 Tremont Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,805 (+8%)	3mo	$345,000	$191	41
1351 Crimson Clover Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,882 (+13%)	9mo	$375,000	$199	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-33,082
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-47,888
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,545 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$601 /mo · $7,217/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$176
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,417

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $157	+0% $101	+5% $44	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $0	+0% $101	+5% $201	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $152	base $101	+0.5pp $49	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29647 Fog Hollow Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,599	$1.25	26d	1	0.24mi
30232 Ingalls Ct Unit NA Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	1685	$2,400	$1.42	7d	1	0.40mi
30127 Barnaby Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,795	$1.28	24d	1	0.49mi
1411 Sedgwick Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1254	$1,875	$1.50	26d	1	0.55mi
1411 Sedgwick Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1416	$1,875	$1.32	1d	1	0.55mi
2454 Stapleford Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2153	$2,600	$1.21	17d	1	0.60mi
1245 Beckenham Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,850	$1.27	1d	1	0.64mi
1550 Maximilian Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,650	$1.34	7d	1	0.64mi
1302 Denman Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,799	$1.38	26d	1	0.66mi
29611 Birds Eye Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1787	$2,540	$1.42	0d	1	0.68mi
30588 Chesapeake Bay Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	2072	$2,995	$1.45	19d	1	0.68mi
30542 Tremont Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,295	$1.27	26d	1	0.70mi
29430 Sea Dahlia Pass Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,700	$1.48	26d	1	0.73mi
29250 Yarrow Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1487	$2,239	$1.51	15d	1	0.75mi
30202 Goodwick Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	0.82mi
30721 Wrencrest Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,500	$0.96	6d	1	0.85mi
2016 Folkstone Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,400	$1.59	24d	1	1.22mi
2016 Folkstone Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,295	$1.52	6d	1	1.22mi
31115 Hannigan Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1956	$2,500	$1.28	7d	1	1.27mi
1327 Big Sky Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$2,400	$1.75	26d	1	1.29mi
1243 Big Sky Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,385	$1.60	7d	1	1.34mi
28878 Golden Vista Blvd Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,748	$2.56	0d	48	1.36mi
1928 Tidewater Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,190	$1.46	7d	1	1.39mi
31203 Flannery Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1620	$2,200	$1.36	26d	1	1.41mi
1941 Tidewater Ct Unit 1234472P Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	3.0	1431	$4,071	$2.84	1d	1	1.42mi
1145 Evening Trail Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	2042	$2,050	$1.00	1d	1	1.46mi
31225 Claridge Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	26d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $176 · $2,112/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $200,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 384-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,217 · $601/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,217 · $601/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$7,217
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,443
• − Management: −$2,443
• − HOA: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $1,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-18.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records
• 2007-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $240,858 Public Records
• 2007-09-27 Sold (MLS) $240,848 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-05 Listed $244,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,217 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.