31 Woodland Cir · Poinciana, FL 33844

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1976 5,793 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great oppurtunity to get a completely remodeled 2 bed 2 bath mobile home in the great community of Sun Air, home has had a lot of updates and renovations plus a nicely manicured yard. This is a must see in the Sun Air mobile home section.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Oak cabinets
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• REMODELED MANUFACTURED HOME
• UPDATED INTERIOR FINISHES
• OAK CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Lot approximately 0.13 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Homestead exemption claimed
• HOA & community: No association; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer / sewer connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Power: public
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built area about 960 square feet
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Paved, publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $125k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.86%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,531
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $28,338
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $987

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $504	-5% $469	+0% $433	+5% $398	+10% $363
Rent	-10% $312	-5% $373	+0% $433	+5% $494	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $465	base $433	+0.5pp $401	+1.0pp $368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $125,000 Active
16. 2019-03-19
    soldstatus $48,000
17. 2013-11-05
    soldstatus $48,000
18. 2013-10-29
    soldstatus $48,000 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Great oppurtunity to get a completely remodeled 2 bed 2 bath mobile home in the great community of Sun Air, home has had a lot of updates and renovations plus a nicely manicured yard. This is a must see in the Sun Air mobile home section.

19. 2013-07-16
    listed $54,900 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    Great oppurtunity to get a completely remodeled 2 bed 2 bath mobile home in the great community of Sun Air, home has had a lot of updates and renovations plus a nicely manicured yard. This is a must see in the Sun Air mobile home section.

20. 2012-11-29
    listed $59,900
21. 1997-04-28
    soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$174/yr (+$14/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,474
• − Management: −$1,474
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $4,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+208.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2013-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-29 Sold (MLS) $48,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-16 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-29 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.