8021 Matthew Stevens Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77306

$164,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Land · 73 Days on market

Built 1999 0.32 ac lot $105/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 1,568 sq ft 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Forest Trace subdivision of Conroe! Situated on a spacious 0.324-acre lot, this property offers comfort, functionality, and room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find a welcoming layout with generous living spaces and natural light throughout. Step outside to relax on the covered front patio/deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding. The expansive backyard provides endless possibilities for entertaining, pets, or future improvements. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-105, commuting to The Woodlands and surrounding areas is a breeze. Enjoy nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, including Lake Conroe. This property is a great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space and value in a growing area!

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.48%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,207
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -3.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $11,274
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $58,886
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $710	-5% $653	+0% $596	+5% $539	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $419	-5% $507	+0% $596	+5% $684	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $679	-0.5pp $638	base $596	+0.5pp $553	+1.0pp $510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	23d	1	0.70mi
14990 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1607	$2,400	$1.49	44d	1	0.76mi
14918 N Ascot Bend Cir Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$1,955	$0.99	44d	1	0.82mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $164,900 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $170,000 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 1,568 sq ft 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Forest Trace subdivision of Conroe! Situated on a spacious 0.324-acre lot, this property offers comfort, functionality, and room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find a welcoming layout with generous living spaces and natural light throughout. Step outside to relax on the covered front patio/deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding. The expansive backyard provides endless possibilities for entertaining, pets, or future improvements. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-105, commuting to The Woodlands and surrounding areas is a breeze. Enjoy nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, including Lake Conroe. This property is a great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space and value in a growing area!

16. 2026-04-07
    listed $175,000 Active 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 1,568 sq ft 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in the growing Forest Trace subdivision of Conroe! Situated on a spacious 0.324-acre lot, this property offers comfort, functionality, and room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you’ll find a welcoming layout with generous living spaces and natural light throughout. Step outside to relax on the covered front patio/deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding. The expansive backyard provides endless possibilities for entertaining, pets, or future improvements. Conveniently located with easy access to TX-105, commuting to The Woodlands and surrounding areas is a breeze. Enjoy nearby shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation, including Lake Conroe. This property is a great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space and value in a growing area!

17. 2026-03-23
    historical
18. 2025-09-02
    price $180,000
19. 2025-07-22
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $4,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $5,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $190,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $256 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.