5533 Flannel Ln · Denton, TX 76249

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · Land · 103 Days on market

Built 2025 4,600 sqft lot $178/sqft · at area comps Est $290k · at est. $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

D.R. Horton, America's Builder is NOW SELLING in the New fabulous Community of Hickory Grove in Denton and Krum ISD! The single-story Estero Floorplan, Elevation W, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept layout ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow seamlessly together, creating a welcoming central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, center island, stainless steel sink, and a walk-in pantry. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, this home also includes a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, and privacy fencing. Hickory Grove boasts a range of amenities and future developments, including planned pools and multiple playgrounds for family fun and relaxation.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• En suite bath
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• WALK IN PANTRY
• EN SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-643/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,484 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,990
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -3.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,713
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-46,521
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76249

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,523

Max offer price $272,230

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5533 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	5d	1	0.02mi
5544 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,100	$1.46	4d	1	0.02mi
5552 Rollins Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,200	$1.52	22d	1	0.08mi
5568 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	5d	1	0.10mi
1504 Tin Roof Rd Krum, TX	5.0	3.0	2044	$2,800	$1.37	43d	1	0.13mi
1106 Spring Flower Dr Krum, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	43d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

   D.R. Horton, America's Builder is NOW SELLING in the New fabulous Community of Hickory Grove in Denton and Krum ISD! The single-story Estero Floorplan, Elevation W, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept layout ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow seamlessly together, creating a welcoming central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, center island, stainless steel sink, and a walk-in pantry. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, this home also includes a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, and privacy fencing. Hickory Grove boasts a range of amenities and future developments, including planned pools and multiple playgrounds for family fun and relaxation.

2. 2026-04-09
   price $279,990 1300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

   D.R. Horton, America's Builder is NOW SELLING in the New fabulous Community of Hickory Grove in Denton and Krum ISD! The single-story Estero Floorplan, Elevation W, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept layout ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow seamlessly together, creating a welcoming central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, center island, stainless steel sink, and a walk-in pantry. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, this home also includes a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, and privacy fencing. Hickory Grove boasts a range of amenities and future developments, including planned pools and multiple playgrounds for family fun and relaxation.

3. 2026-02-10
   price $283,990 1300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

   D.R. Horton, America's Builder is NOW SELLING in the New fabulous Community of Hickory Grove in Denton and Krum ISD! The single-story Estero Floorplan, Elevation W, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept layout ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow seamlessly together, creating a welcoming central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, center island, stainless steel sink, and a walk-in pantry. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, this home also includes a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, and privacy fencing. Hickory Grove boasts a range of amenities and future developments, including planned pools and multiple playgrounds for family fun and relaxation.

4. 2026-01-23
   listed $289,990 Active 1300-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1300 chars)

   D.R. Horton, America's Builder is NOW SELLING in the New fabulous Community of Hickory Grove in Denton and Krum ISD! The single-story Estero Floorplan, Elevation W, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a bright open-concept layout ideal for modern living. The family room, dining area, and contemporary kitchen flow seamlessly together, creating a welcoming central gathering space. The kitchen features quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, center island, stainless steel sink, and a walk-in pantry. The private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with dual quartz vanities, a 5-foot oversized shower, and a walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Luxury vinyl plank flooring enhances the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Built with energy-efficient construction and equipped with America’s Smart Home Technology, this home also includes a landscape package, full sprinkler system with rain sensor, and privacy fencing. Hickory Grove boasts a range of amenities and future developments, including planned pools and multiple playgrounds for family fun and relaxation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,291
• After-tax cash flow: $648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,637
• Household income: $120,169
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 134.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.45%
• Current HPI: 276.067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $279,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $283,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $289,990 NTREIS