3709 S County Rd 1316 · Odessa, TX 79765

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1978 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just move in! Great 3 bedroom, 2 bath with fireplace in living room complete with fp insert. Tile throughout except for carpet in bedrooms. Sequestered master bedroom with huge bath. Good sized bedrooms and loads of closet space. Huge back yard with small storage building and front entry 2 car garage.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Propane; Other water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Solar energy generation

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Fireplace in den; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 431 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.35%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $19,600
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $60,979
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,514 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,756/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,473

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $915	-5% $869	+0% $822	+5% $775	+10% $729
Rent	-10% $623	-5% $723	+0% $822	+5% $921	+10% $1,021
Rate	-1.0pp $905	-0.5pp $864	base $822	+0.5pp $779	+1.0pp $736

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33 Cibola Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$3,500	$2.33	44d	1	0.72mi
3601 N Faudree Rd Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$1,982	$2.22	14d	20	1.02mi
7309 Raphael St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$3,500	$1.92	21d	1	1.13mi
1205 Old Course Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,100	$1.21	44d	1	1.24mi
7204 Donatello St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,400	$1.37	44d	1	1.24mi
7206 Raphael St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1743	$2,800	$1.61	44d	1	1.26mi
7230 Barksdale Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,100	$1.64	21d	1	1.32mi
503 Old Course Rd Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	13d	1	1.33mi
7214 Barksdale Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	1.36mi
4001 N Faudree Rd Odessa, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,850	$1.97	13d	12	1.43mi
4001 De Morada Dr Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,969	$2.20	13d	10	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-05-26
    listed $165,000 Active
12. 2021-04-01
    soldstatus
13. 2008-02-01
    soldstatus
14. 2008-01-15
    soldstatus 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Just move in! Great 3 bedroom, 2 bath with fireplace in living room complete with fp insert. Tile throughout except for carpet in bedrooms. Sequestered master bedroom with huge bath. Good sized bedrooms and loads of closet space. Huge back yard with small storage building and front entry 2 car garage.

15. 2007-08-21
    listed $125,000 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Just move in! Great 3 bedroom, 2 bath with fireplace in living room complete with fp insert. Tile throughout except for carpet in bedrooms. Sequestered master bedroom with huge bath. Good sized bedrooms and loads of closet space. Huge back yard with small storage building and front entry 2 car garage.

16. 1999-06-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,756 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$263/yr (+$22/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,756
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,413
• − Management: −$2,413
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $7,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,851
• After-tax cash flow: $8,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $165,000 ODMLS
• 2021-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-01-15 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2007-08-21 Listed $125,000 ODMLS
• 1999-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,756 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.