2358 Road 5838 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $111/sqft · 37% above area Est $146k · 37% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to spacious, contemporary living in this beautifully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence. The heart of the home is the stunning, large island kitchen, perfectly situated for gathering and entertaining. This gourmet space opens up seamlessly to the living room, dining room, and a secondary family room, creating an expansive, open-concept feel throughout the main living areas. Enjoy maximum privacy with the highly desired split-bedroom floor plan; the generous primary bedroom suite is a private retreat on one end of the house. The other three well-sized bedrooms are situated on the opposite end, conveniently clustered around the second full bathroom, the oversized utility room, a

Key facts

• Open concept
• Island kitchen
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• BUILT-IN COMPUTER DESK NOOK
• OVERSIZED UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Thermostat energy-efficient feature
• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with annual fee of $400

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 1,800 total building area
• Construction: Built in 2020; Cement siding and wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 17 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — 11 x 12; Bedroom (First floor) — 10 x 12; Bedroom (First floor) — 11 x 12; Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor) — 11 x 12

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,742 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,761
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 37.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,275
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,216
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $235	+0% $179	+5% $122	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $108	+0% $179	+5% $249	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $230	base $179	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    listed $200,000 Active 1004-char remark
15. 2023-09-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,842/yr (+$237/mo · 347.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,716
• − Management: −$1,716
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$292
• After-tax cash flow: $2,437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, contemporary manufactured home is move-in ready with a good condition score and a good rehab level. It offers a spacious floor plan with modern finishes and ample natural light, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value.
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value.
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the interior and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase resale value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances the interior and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.