13 Winthrop Rd #24 · Shelter Island Heights, NY 11964

$499,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 39,964 sqft · Condo · 88 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover effortless living in this beautifully renovated one-bedroom, one bath co-op on Shelter Island. The apartment is set within a serene and private eight-acre community. Thoughtfully updated, the residence features a modern kitchen and bath, with Bosch appliances, including an in-unit washer and dryer for ultimate convenience. The home opens to a private deck-perfectly suited for outdoor dining or relaxing evenings-creating a seamless extension of the living space. As an added benefit, the apartment is offered fully furnished and thoughtfully equipped with all essential kitchenware, making it truly move in ready or ideal as a turnkey getaway. Residents enjoy access to an exceptional suite of amenities including a heated pool, gym, and tennis courts, offering a resort-like lifestyle in a tranquil setting. Ideally located, this property places you moments from both the North Fork and the Hamptons. A short ferry ride brings you to the historic waterfront village of Greenport, known for its charming harbor, boutique shopping, and acclaimed dining scene. Equally close is Sag Harbor, a storied destination celebrated for its maritime heritage, vibrant Main Street, and exceptional restaurants. Surrounded by water and natural beauty, this is an ideal retreat for those seeking a refined yet relaxed East End lifestyle-with effortless access to beaches, boating, vineyards, and some of the region’s most beloved historic towns.

Key facts

• Private deck
• Renovated co-op
• Gym

Tags

• RENOVATED CO-OP
• PRIVATE DECK
• MODERN KITCHEN
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• HEATED POOL
• GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $444k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $389k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,120 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelter Island Union Free School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $388,763 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $9,455
• Equity at exit: $195,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $102,139
• Equity at exit: $281,572

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11964

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$624 /mo · $7,485/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$816
• Net cashflow: $-377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,365

Max offer price $444,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-205	+0% $-377	+5% $-550	+10% $-722
Rent	-10% $-684	-5% $-531	+0% $-377	+5% $-224	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-126	-0.5pp $-250	base $-377	+0.5pp $-507	+1.0pp $-638

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $499,000 Active 1448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1448 chars)

    Discover effortless living in this beautifully renovated one-bedroom, one bath co-op on Shelter Island. The apartment is set within a serene and private eight-acre community. Thoughtfully updated, the residence features a modern kitchen and bath, with Bosch appliances, including an in-unit washer and dryer for ultimate convenience. The home opens to a private deck-perfectly suited for outdoor dining or relaxing evenings-creating a seamless extension of the living space. As an added benefit, the apartment is offered fully furnished and thoughtfully equipped with all essential kitchenware, making it truly move in ready or ideal as a turnkey getaway. Residents enjoy access to an exceptional suite of amenities including a heated pool, gym, and tennis courts, offering a resort-like lifestyle in a tranquil setting. Ideally located, this property places you moments from both the North Fork and the Hamptons. A short ferry ride brings you to the historic waterfront village of Greenport, known for its charming harbor, boutique shopping, and acclaimed dining scene. Equally close is Sag Harbor, a storied destination celebrated for its maritime heritage, vibrant Main Street, and exceptional restaurants. Surrounded by water and natural beauty, this is an ideal retreat for those seeking a refined yet relaxed East End lifestyle-with effortless access to beaches, boating, vineyards, and some of the region’s most beloved historic towns.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$7,485
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,732
• − Management: −$3,732
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$13,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,183
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelter Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3626640
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,456
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7365
• State rank: #546 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shelter Island Heights

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1120
• US rank: #23056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelter Island Heights, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 21% Native American 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Romanian 5% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Current HPI: 476.2348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid