1717 Willow Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$99,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1820 4,092 sqft lot Est $91k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Once in a great while does an opportunity like this ever come along. 2nd generation ownership has been in the same family for over 55 years. Everything has been done. Located minutes to Canadian Borders & State Parks. Close to Pine Ave shopping & bus routes. Roof, siding, windows, furnace, C/A, Electric, plumbing, On Demand Hot Water system, Floors updated. State of the art bath with shower system with 12 Jacuzzi heads. Heated bathroom floor. Modern updated light fixtures. Full attic one room finished offer additional storage. Full basement with work benches. Private secure fenced in yard.

Key facts

• Vinyl plank flooring
• Spacious living room
• 4,092 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• GENEROUS CLOSET STORAGE
• STAINLESS STEEL RANGE
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY HOOKUPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 3 garage spaces; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5; Laundry room (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living/dining room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $100k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.65%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,864
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1812 Pierce Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-9%)	0mo	$65,000	$56	80
1512 Willow Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-9%)	0mo	$39,300	$34	76
1870 South Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+5%)	0mo	$116,000	$88	76
1852 Ontario Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,273 (+1%)	3mo	$85,000	$67	73
1317 Niagara Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (+4%)	1mo	$28,000	$21	65
1013 13th St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,352 (+7%)	3mo	$97,000	$72	65
724 17th St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,179 (-7%)	4mo	$70,000	$59	65
1327 Willow Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,444 (+14%)	1mo	$40,000	$28	61
628 20th St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+5%)	2mo	$115,000	$87	61
2456 South Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,380 (+9%)	2mo	$120,000	$87	56
2487 Grand Ave	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,188 (-6%)	1mo	$169,900	$143	52
2189 Seneca Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-11%)	2mo	$130,000	$116	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,136
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $29,943
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,300/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $958

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	44d	1	0.11mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.25mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.33mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.34mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	21d	1	0.36mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	24d	1	0.40mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	985	$1,899	$1.93	2d	1	0.46mi
1817 Ontario Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	999	$1,899	$1.90	2d	1	0.46mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	3d	1	0.52mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	17d	1	0.57mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	0.83mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.83mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.86mi
2814 10th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	2d	1	0.98mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.01mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	44d	1	1.02mi
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	10d	1	1.11mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	1.24mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.30mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	1.31mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $99,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,300 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,300 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,334
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,300
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$581
• After-tax cash flow: $3,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+106.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-12-07 Sold (MLS) $48,500 WNYREIS
• 2016-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2016-11-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-09-28 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2016-09-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-08-08 Listed $48,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,300 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.