651 Cedar Point Dr · Cedar Point, TX 77351

$144,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 2004 5,000 sqft lot Est $205k · 30% under $68/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fall in love with this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled in the lovely Cedar Point subdivision. Recent updates include just-installed Mohawk waterproof laminate plank flooring, sheetrock throughout all rooms except the kitchen and baths, an approx 3-year-old roof and an approx 7-year-old HVAC system. The home was leveled in 2022 and sits on 3 lots totaling 15,000 sq ft, offering generous outdoor space. Enjoy relaxing evenings on the covered back deck, with 2 storage sheds providing extra convenience. The spacious kitchen features a new over and dishwasher, abundant counter space and opens seamlessly to a nice-sized family room-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The private

Key facts

• Play area
• 2 storage sheds
• Covered back deck

Tags

• COVERED BACK DECK
• 2 STORAGE SHEDS
• GATED COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• 2 BOAT RAMPS
• 2 POOLS
• PLAY AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access
• HOA & community: Member of Cedar Point HOA/Sterling Association; Association amenities include boat ramp, clubhouse and controlled access; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Controlled access to community (association amenity)
• Security: Controlled access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story layout (all main rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2004; Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fence enclosing back yard; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Free‑standing range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Office can function as a bedroom/bonus room (First floor); Total of 4 bedrooms/office spaces; 7 total rooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath with double vanity, soaking tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Attic fan; Thermostat (programmable energy efficient)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $264 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,509 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,040 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.87%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,593
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
970 Cedar Point Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,096 (+12%)	3mo	$229,000	$109	57
489 Sandy Ridge Dr W	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,790 (-5%)	23mo	$489,000	$273	40
197 Pin Oak	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+13%)	24mo	$70,000	$33	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,436
• Equity at exit: $21,471

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $16,342
• Equity at exit: $12,450

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$180 /mo · $2,160/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,346

Max offer price $144,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
236 Bluebonnet Livingston, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	12d	1	0.52mi
164 Red Clover Livingston, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	10d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-25
   price $144,000
6. 2026-01-31
   listed $149,000 Active
7. 2026-01-30
   historical
8. 2025-11-29
   price $154,900
9. 2025-09-14
   price $159,000
10. 2025-08-08
    price $164,000
11. 2025-05-22
    price $169,000
12. 2025-04-18
    listed $179,900 Active
13. 2000-01-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$2,160
• − Insurance: −$720
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable income: $986
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$237
• After-tax cash flow: $2,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Point

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1509
• US rank: #25794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Point, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $144,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $154,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2000-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $61 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.