1 Packard Way · Lakewood, NY 14750

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,020 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1930 6,300 sqft lot Est $147k · 32% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

WELCOME TO ONE PACKARD WAY, a two family, 3 bedroom, 3 bath multi unit with attached one car garage. Come take a look at this wonderful multi unit, that requires renovation. The first floor apartment is one bedroom with a large spacious living room and sliding glass doors that lead to a brick patio and the back yard. There are laundry hook ups for each apartment in their separate unit. Each unit has separate utilities and entry ways. The upstairs apartment features 2 bedrooms, a spacious eat in kitchen dining combo as well as formal living dining with a fireplace for ambiance, and a lower level second bath/laundry and lower level entry from the garage. Both apartments can be accessed from t

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Upper deck
• Brick patio

Tags

• ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• LARGE SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• BRICK PATIO
• LAUNDRY HOOK UPS
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• UPPER DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($30k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 36.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #373 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $100k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.48%
• DSCR: 5.78
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,460
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Chautauqua Ave	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,268 (+12%)	11mo	$170,000	$75	59
164 E Terrace Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,029 (+0%)	3mo	$148,500	$73	57
38 Chautauqua Ave	0.04mi	3/3.0	1,728 (-14%)	16mo	$115,500	$67	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $143,756
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.85×
• Total profit: $331,811
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14750

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,825/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$924
• Net cashflow: $2,508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,226

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,854	-5% $2,819	+0% $2,508	+5% $2,479	+10% $2,451
Rent	-10% $2,160	-5% $2,334	+0% $2,508	+5% $2,682	+10% $2,855
Rate	-1.0pp $2,558	-0.5pp $2,533	base $2,508	+0.5pp $2,482	+1.0pp $2,456

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$4,400
Total (2 units)			$4,400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $100,000 Active
3. 2001-12-31
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,825 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,825 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$4,825
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,224
• − Management: −$4,224
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $30,516
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,324
• After-tax cash flow: $22,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwestern Central School District At Jamestown
• NCES district ID: 3627660
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,567
• Composite: 43.21/100
• National rank: #3062
• State rank: #373 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,411

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.43%
• Current HPI: 318.8566
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $100,000 UNYREIS
• 2001-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,825 · +41.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.