10409 Villa View Cir #10409 · Tampa, FL 33647

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Condo public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2001 $119/sqft · 30% below area Est $249k · 30% under $802/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST LISTED – MOVE-IN READY & INVESTOR FRIENDLY! No CDD and an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. Welcome to this exquisitely maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath condominium located in one of New Tampa’s most desirable gated communities. This beautifully updated home features a thoughtfully designed open layout with soaring vaulted ceilings, brand-new laminate flooring, new carpeted stairs, and abundant natural light that creates a bright and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen showcases elegant quartz countertops, soft-close cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious pantry — perfectly designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The sun-filled living room offers charming bay windows and a decorative non-woodburning fireplace that adds warmth and character to the space. Additional highlights include a spacious in-unit laundry room with washer and dryer included for added convenience. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling swimming pool, clubhouse, recently renovated fitness center, scenic playground, and the security of gated access. High-speed internet and premium cable are included in the community services. Ideally situated just minutes from USF, I-75, and I-4, with easy access to shopping, dining, healthcare facilities, and recreational trails — this location offers both convenience and lifestyle. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an income-producing property, this one checks all the boxes. Schedule your private showing soon, don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• No cdd
• Investor friendly
• Open layout

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• INVESTOR FRIENDLY
• NO CDD
• NO RESTRICTIONS ON RENTALS
• GATED COMMUNITIES
• OPEN LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (38.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (38.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary School (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 489 students, 46% FRL); Benito Middle School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #140 of 571 statewide, top 25%, 1,017 students, 47% FRL); Wharton High School (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,289 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100; list at $175k implies a 174900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,034 (38.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.42%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,495
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -29.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-58,334
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-103,396
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33647

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 493
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,477/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$802
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,530

Max offer price $107,034

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-335	+0% $-385	+5% $-434	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-546	-5% $-465	+0% $-385	+5% $-304	+10% $-223
Rate	-1.0pp $-297	-0.5pp $-340	base $-385	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10538 Villa View Cir Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,200	$1.52	26d	1	0.04mi
17942 Villa Creek Dr #17942 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,590	$1.43	26d	1	0.04mi
17954 Villa Creek Dr Unit 17954 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,700	$1.53	7d	1	0.04mi
17975 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1082	$1,450	$1.34	26d	1	0.04mi
18058 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,200	$1.52	26d	1	0.05mi
18105 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,950	$1.66	26d	1	0.05mi
18124 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	4d	1	0.05mi
18006 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,875	$1.60	7d	1	0.09mi
18112 Canal Pointe St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	4d	1	0.18mi
18112 Canal Pointe St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	16d	1	0.18mi
10526 Villa Creek Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,695	$1.44	4d	1	0.20mi
18136 Birdwater Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,151	$1.34	26d	1	0.22mi
18002 Birdwater Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,400	$1.46	26d	1	0.37mi
10328 Venitia Real Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1111	$1,799	$1.62	0d	33	0.45mi
10327 Goldenbrook Way Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,575	$1.97	19d	1	0.65mi
10301 Beneva Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,300	$1.50	15d	1	0.76mi
10301 Beneva Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,300	$1.50	26d	1	0.76mi
10821 Fowlers Bluff Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1596	$2,199	$1.38	1d	1	0.79mi
10821 Cross Creek Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1160	$2,350	$2.03	0d	24	0.98mi
10806 Keato Beach Ct Unit 10806 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1596	$2,350	$1.47	12d	1	1.11mi
10823 Fort White Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,300	$1.30	26d	1	1.14mi
10132 Heather Sound Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$2,500	$1.44	23d	1	1.26mi
18157 Paradise Point Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,295	$1.68	7d	1	1.42mi
18181 Paradise Point Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,200	$1.61	19d	1	1.43mi
18121 Paradise Point Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1364	$1,800	$1.32	0d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $802 · $9,624/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-02-20
    listed $175,000 Active 1584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1584 chars)

    JUST LISTED – MOVE-IN READY & INVESTOR FRIENDLY! No CDD and an excellent opportunity for both homeowners and investors. Welcome to this exquisitely maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath condominium located in one of New Tampa’s most desirable gated communities. This beautifully updated home features a thoughtfully designed open layout with soaring vaulted ceilings, brand-new laminate flooring, new carpeted stairs, and abundant natural light that creates a bright and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen showcases elegant quartz countertops, soft-close cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious pantry — perfectly designed for both everyday living and entertaining. The sun-filled living room offers charming bay windows and a decorative non-woodburning fireplace that adds warmth and character to the space. Additional highlights include a spacious in-unit laundry room with washer and dryer included for added convenience. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including a sparkling swimming pool, clubhouse, recently renovated fitness center, scenic playground, and the security of gated access. High-speed internet and premium cable are included in the community services. Ideally situated just minutes from USF, I-75, and I-4, with easy access to shopping, dining, healthcare facilities, and recreational trails — this location offers both convenience and lifestyle. Whether you're looking for a primary residence or an income-producing property, this one checks all the boxes. Schedule your private showing soon, don't miss this opportunity.

17. 2025-12-23
    historical
18. 2025-11-18
    price $187,000
19. 2025-09-16
    price $197,000
20. 2025-06-30
    listed $205,000 Active
21. 2025-06-12
    historical
22. 2025-06-05
    price $215,000
23. 2025-03-07
    price $220,000
24. 2025-02-14
    price $215,000
25. 2024-10-22
    price $239,000
26. 2024-09-16
    listed $259,000 Active
27. 2019-01-08
    soldstatus $100
28. 2005-02-08
    soldstatus $26,433,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,477 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,477 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,477
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − HOA: −$9,624
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$7,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,745
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 74,844
• Household income: $109,285
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2578.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 16% Black 16% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.77%
• Current HPI: 225.0483
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $187,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $197,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-16 Listed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records
• 2005-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $26,433,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,477 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.