18886 County Road 2323 · Whitehouse, TX 75791

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1985

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming property! This double-wide home, plus a large separate shop—providing tons of storage for tools, equipment, or projects. The property sits on a large front and back yard, perfect for outdoor living, play, or future expansion. You’ll also enjoy two spacious back decks, a front-yard playhouse, and a nice front porch with a handicapped-accessible ramp. The home is on a septic system for added convenience. Inside, you’ll find 3 bedrooms plus an additional bonus bedroom, offering flexible space for an office, guest room, or nursery. The kitchen and bathroom have been remodeled, and the home includes carpet throughout for comfort. A metal roof adds durab

Key facts

• Large separate shop
• Metal roof
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• LARGE SEPARATE SHOP
• LARGE FRONT AND BACK YARD
• TWO SPACIOUS BACK DECKS
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1985; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms possible
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.7% in Whitehouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#55 in TX, #2,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Whitehouse ISD (suburban): math 68% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #38 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gus Winston Cain El (math 71% / reading 63%, grade B+, #199 of 4,322 statewide, top 5%, 515 students, 56% FRL); Whitehouse J H (math 65% / reading 53%, grade B, #181 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 776 students, 49% FRL); Whitehouse H S (math 71% / reading 69%, grade B+, #116 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,532 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.62%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $16,556
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $62,232
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75791

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19218 Autumn Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,300	$1.07	21d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $129,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,834/yr (+$153/mo · 348.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $5,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $5,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitehouse ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845600
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,060
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1274
• State rank: #38 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitehouse

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #2180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 15,786
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,786
• Household income: $92,107
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.16%
• Current HPI: 201.297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $139,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $526 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.