405 W Twisted Branch Way · Mustang, OK 73064

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1987 8,956 sqft lot Est $195k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME IS SITTING ON A BEAUTIFUL CUL-DE-SAC LOT FACING THE EAST. BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD WITH STORAGE SHED AND A NEW FENCE.

Key facts

• Scenic views
• 8,956 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SCENIC VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($2/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.5% in Mustang — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mustang (suburban): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #28 of 270 in OK (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mustang Centennial Es (math 46% / reading 42%, grade F, #73 of 845 statewide, top 9%, 643 students, 0% FRL); Mustang Hs (math 28% / reading 39%, grade F, #65 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 3,756 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 28% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 512 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 260 units permitted in Canadian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canadian County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $142k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,659 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 W Twisted Branch Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,258 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$159	100
302 W Branches Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-0%)	10mo	$190,000	$151	83
335 W Cedar Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+5%)	0mo	$204,000	$155	62
438 W Strasburg Way	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+9%)	10mo	$220,000	$160	61
1013 N Crystal Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+6%)	1mo	$130,000	$98	58
442 W Apple Branch Way	0.19mi	3/3.0	1,069 (-15%)	9mo	$185,000	$173	54
917 N Crystal Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+11%)	4mo	$215,000	$154	47
309 E Twelve Oaks Ter	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+9%)	8mo	$205,000	$150	47
938 W Ridgecrest Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+9%)	6mo	$195,000	$143	47
913 N Kirk Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+9%)	5mo	$205,000	$149	46
246 W Chantilly Way	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (-15%)	7mo	$171,500	$160	46
433 W Forest Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,135 (-10%)	6mo	$188,000	$166	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-37,371
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-51,746
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73064

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 512
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,697 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,496/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 N Ponderosa Way Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1686	$2,000	$1.19	23d	1	0.28mi
548 W Shadow Ridge Way Mustang, OK	4.0	2.0	1734	$1,945	$1.12	20d	1	0.47mi
736 W Celestial Way Mustang, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,695	$2.02	1d	8	0.66mi
1013 W Gladys Way Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,450	$1.30	21d	1	0.75mi
936 W Tesio Way Mustang, OK	3.0	1.5	1255	$1,425	$1.14	23d	1	0.79mi
360 N Pebble Creek Ter Mustang, OK	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,272	$1.06	23d	1	0.91mi
360 N Pebble Creek Ter Mustang, OK	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,271	$1.06	16d	1	0.91mi
360 N Pebble Creek Ter Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,530	$1.13	2d	1	0.91mi
360 N Pebble Creek Ter Mustang, OK	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,271	$1.06	20d	1	0.91mi
360 N Pebble Creek Ter Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,540	$1.14	14d	1	0.91mi
1136 W Johnathan Way Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,450	$1.02	23d	1	0.94mi
742 W Juniper Dr Mustang, OK	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,475	$1.34	1d	1	1.02mi
1247 W Huntington Way Unit a Mustang, OK	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,200	$1.17	3d	1	1.07mi
Greens at Mustang Creek Mustang, OK	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,275	$1.56	1d	1	1.10mi
313 N Shannon Way Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,750	$1.03	16d	1	1.12mi
733 W Perry Dr Mustang, OK	3.0	1.5	999	$1,345	$1.35	1d	1	1.16mi
4904 Vine Cliff Rd Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,295	$1.25	23d	1	1.23mi
609 E Linden Ln Mustang, OK	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,700	$1.37	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $200,000
3. 2026-04-08
   price $210,000
4. 2026-03-25
   listed $215,000 Active
5. 2023-05-25
   soldstatus $142,000
6. 2016-05-13
   soldstatus $115,000

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   HOME IS SITTING ON A BEAUTIFUL CUL-DE-SAC LOT FACING THE EAST. BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD WITH STORAGE SHED AND A NEW FENCE.

7. 2016-05-13
   soldstatus $115,000 Sold 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   HOME IS SITTING ON A BEAUTIFUL CUL-DE-SAC LOT FACING THE EAST. BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD WITH STORAGE SHED AND A NEW FENCE.

8. 2016-04-07
   status Pending 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   HOME IS SITTING ON A BEAUTIFUL CUL-DE-SAC LOT FACING THE EAST. BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD WITH STORAGE SHED AND A NEW FENCE.

9. 2016-04-06
   listed $114,900 Active 117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (117 chars)

   HOME IS SITTING ON A BEAUTIFUL CUL-DE-SAC LOT FACING THE EAST. BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD WITH STORAGE SHED AND A NEW FENCE.

10. 2009-12-11
    soldstatus $86,001 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    HUD PROPERTY SUBJECT TO HUD REGULATIONS AND BIDDING PROCEDURES. OFFERED AS INSURABLE W/$2448 IN ESCROWS. BID OPENING DATE 10/26/09. 421-378946 BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFO INCLUDING LOT SIZE!!

11. 2009-09-04
    listed $83,000 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    HUD PROPERTY SUBJECT TO HUD REGULATIONS AND BIDDING PROCEDURES. OFFERED AS INSURABLE W/$2448 IN ESCROWS. BID OPENING DATE 10/26/09. 421-378946 BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFO INCLUDING LOT SIZE!!

12. 2002-01-02
    soldstatus $76,000
13. 2001-12-28
    soldstatus $76,000
14. 2001-09-28
    listed $79,900
15. 1999-05-20
    soldstatus $68,000
16. 1999-05-14
    soldstatus $68,000
17. 1999-03-29
    listed $70,000
18. 1998-06-19
    soldstatus $67,500
19. 1997-07-02
    soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,496 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,496 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,496
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,629
• − Management: −$1,629
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,416
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mustang
• NCES district ID: 4021000
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,559
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6038
• State rank: #28 of 270 in OK

Livability — Mustang

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8746

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mustang, OK
• County: Canadian County · 154,341 people
• City population: 28,919
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 28,919
• Household income: $94,402
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Canadian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,062 people
• By 2030: 195,170 · +12.1%
• By 2040: 239,293 · +37.5%
• By 2050: 285,457 · +64.0%
• By 2075: 403,766 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 498,766 · +186.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 3% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Scottish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canadian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.4) · D 28.8% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -40.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.4 2020: R+43.3 2016: R+51.2 2012: R+54.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.66%
• Current HPI: 260.2863
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.33%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+220.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $200,000 MLSOK
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $210,000 MLSOK
• 2026-03-25 Listed $215,000 MLSOK
• 2023-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-13 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MLSOK
• 2016-04-07 Pending — MLSOK
• 2016-04-06 Listed $114,900 MLSOK
• 2009-12-11 Sold (MLS) $86,001 MLSOK
• 2009-09-04 Listed $83,000 MLSOK
• 2002-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-28 Sold (MLS) $76,000 MLSOK
• 2001-09-28 Listed $79,900 MLSOK
• 1999-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1999-05-14 Sold (MLS) $68,000 MLSOK
• 1999-03-29 Listed $70,000 MLSOK
• 1998-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 1997-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,496 · +27.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.