102 Gt Bailey St · Westminster, TX 75495

$229,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1993 1.00 ac lot $100/sqft · 15% above area Est $200k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE ONE ACRE LOT! 102 GT Bailey Ln is a fantastic property in the remote Van Alstyne area. This beautiful mobile home HAS BEEN UPDATED and features four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and approximately 2,304 sq ft. of living space. The property sits on a large lot spanning AN ENTIRE ACRE (43,560 sq ft.). Here you will have direct access to main road FM 121 and be near some notable destinations such as the Cedar Gardens Event Center, Mission 160 Range, and Skydive Spaceland Dallas! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• One acre lot
• 1 acre lot
• Built 1993

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• DIRECT ACCESS TO MAIN ROAD
• NEAR NOTABLE DESTINATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,527 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Van Alstyne ISD (rural): math 62% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #51 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 624 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.09%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $229,999
• Delta: 15.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,430
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $12,580
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75495

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 624
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,116/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $229,999

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $392	+0% $327	+5% $262	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $232	+0% $327	+5% $421	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $385	base $327	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,999 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,999 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,999 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,999 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,999 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,999 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,999 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-02-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    LARGE ONE ACRE LOT! 102 GT Bailey Ln is a fantastic property in the remote Van Alstyne area. This beautiful mobile home HAS BEEN UPDATED and features four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and approximately 2,304 sq ft. of living space. The property sits on a large lot spanning AN ENTIRE ACRE (43,560 sq ft.). Here you will have direct access to main road FM 121 and be near some notable destinations such as the Cedar Gardens Event Center, Mission 160 Range, and Skydive Spaceland Dallas! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

16. 2026-02-09
    listed $229,999 Active 707-char remark

    Show marketing remark (707 chars)

    LARGE ONE ACRE LOT! 102 GT Bailey Ln is a fantastic property in the remote Van Alstyne area. This beautiful mobile home HAS BEEN UPDATED and features four bedrooms, two bathrooms, and approximately 2,304 sq ft. of living space. The property sits on a large lot spanning AN ENTIRE ACRE (43,560 sq ft.). Here you will have direct access to main road FM 121 and be near some notable destinations such as the Cedar Gardens Event Center, Mission 160 Range, and Skydive Spaceland Dallas! WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,999
18. 2025-06-26
    historical $1,999
19. 2025-03-08
    listed $1,999
20. 2025-03-07
    listed $229,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,116 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,093/yr (+$91/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,116
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$62
• After-tax cash flow: $3,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Alstyne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843890
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,451
• Composite: 53.28/100
• National rank: #1491
• State rank: #51 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westminster

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1527
• US rank: #26083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,120
• Household income: $111,563
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.06%
• Current HPI: 274.6361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $229,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,999 HARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Rental Removed $1,999 HARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $1,999 HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $229,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,116 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.