846 Burlwood St · Brandon, FL 33511

$230,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2000 3,700 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Investor Special or Rehab. Make the home your own. Seller Motivated. Needs lots of TLC but the results will be amazing. Located in Heather Lakes Unit XXVII Phase, an exquisite community nestled in the heart of Brandon, Florida, within the scenic Hillsborough County. This charming subdivision is a hidden gem, offering a perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community spirit. The community is not just about stunning homes; it’s also about lifestyle. Enjoy access to well-maintained parks, scenic walking trails, and vibrant community spaces. Conveniently located, it offers easy access to major highways, making commuting a breeze. If you're look

Key facts

• 3,700 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Tags

• WELL-MAINTAINED PARKS
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS
• VIBRANT COMMUNITY SPACES
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lamb Elementary (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,073 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 518 students, 74% FRL); Spoto High School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 1,823 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 313 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,903 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-30,576
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-34,247
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33511

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,246/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
741 Burlwood St Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	1769	$2,320	$1.31	24d	1	0.11mi
728 Burlwood St Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,400	$1.49	24d	1	0.16mi
817 Frankford Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1862	$2,200	$1.18	17d	1	0.18mi
337 Kensington Lake Cir Brandon, FL	2.0	3.0	1159	$1,795	$1.55	4d	1	0.22mi
727 Kensington Lake Cir Brandon, FL	2.0	2.5	1496	$2,000	$1.34	24d	1	0.22mi
413 Kensington Lake Cir Brandon, FL	2.0	2.5	1311	$1,900	$1.45	4d	1	0.27mi
1911 Brandon Crossing Cir Brandon, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1073	$1,625	$1.51	1d	14	0.27mi
632 Kensington Lake Cir Unit 632 Brandon, FL	2.0	2.5	1396	$1,950	$1.40	24d	1	0.27mi
523 Kensington Lake Cir Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1159	$1,800	$1.55	24d	1	0.29mi
1012 Old Field Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1174	$2,259	$1.92	16d	1	0.30mi
921 Paddock Club Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1131	$2,038	$1.80	1d	42	0.40mi
905 Old Field Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,849	$1.54	4d	1	0.40mi
1918 Plantation Key Cir Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,069	$2.26	1d	60	0.53mi
914 Axlewood Cir Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,225	$1.53	1d	1	0.55mi
1020 Red Oak Cir Brandon, FL	4.0	2.0	1536	$2,299	$1.50	1d	1	0.61mi
1523 Birchstone Ave Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,271	$1.56	4d	1	0.61mi
1212 Alpine Lake Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,199	$1.88	16d	1	0.62mi
1242 Coolmont Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,700	$1.66	20d	1	0.64mi
1661 Fluorshire Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	1364	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.72mi
1210 Westbury Pointe Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,000	$1.98	2d	52	0.78mi
2211 Grand Isle Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$1,861	$1.95	2d	33	0.80mi
1212 Askew Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1427	$2,084	$1.46	2d	8	0.89mi
1440 Tiverton Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,995	$1.60	20d	1	0.91mi
1604 Sanderling Ct Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$2,215	$1.49	4d	1	0.96mi
1505 Scotch Pine Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,295	$1.38	15d	1	0.97mi
1443 Scotch Pine Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,470	$1.36	2d	1	0.97mi
1413 Tiverton Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,200	$1.69	17d	1	0.98mi
1419 Lake Lucerne Way Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,193	$2.00	2d	16	1.01mi
1540 Chepacket St Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,220	$1.57	24d	1	1.06mi
1428 Highland Ridge Cir Brandon, FL	2.0	2.5	1190	$1,500	$1.26	1d	1	1.06mi
1850 Providence Lakes Blvd Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,068	$2.52	1d	14	1.08mi
795 Ironwood Flats Cir Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1163	$2,773	$2.38	1d	40	1.12mi
804 Fairmaiden Ln Brandon, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	912	$1,570	$1.72	24d	7	1.13mi
1801 Princeton Lakes Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,839	$2.05	1d	19	1.14mi
1403 Scotch Pine Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,726	$1.49	13d	1	1.15mi
2162 Brandon Park Cir Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,366	$1.42	4d	1	1.18mi
1508 Ladora Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$2,385	$2.05	2d	27	1.18mi
1701 Lake Chapman Dr Brandon, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,777	$2.22	2d	32	1.19mi
608 Lynchburg Dr Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,800	$1.76	4d	1	1.28mi
1919 Sterling Palms Ct Brandon, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,214	$2.43	4d	11	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-05
   price $230,000
3. 2026-01-02
   status Active
4. 2025-06-30
   status Pending
5. 2025-06-23
   listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,246 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,909 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,246
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$329
• After-tax cash flow: $2,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #507

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 92,716
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 62,138
• Household income: $81,301
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3073.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -279.49%
• Current HPI: 333.4744
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.17%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,246 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.