4736 NE Blue Heron Ln · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Condo public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1980 $179/sqft · 52% below area $325/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL CARED FOR MOBILE HOME IN QUIET 55+ PARK.COMMUNITY POOL , COMMUNITY DOCK ,LARGE FLORIDA ROOM AND CARPORT.BATHROOMS UPDATED . FURNITURE IS NEGOTIABLE

Key facts

• Brand-new generator
• Updated kitchen
• Spacious carport

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• BRAND-NEW GENERATOR
• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; Community laundry facilities
• Financial info: HOA fee applies
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; HOA fee includes association management, common area maintenance, cable TV, laundry, grounds maintenance, sewer and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport (2 covered spaces, total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story residence; Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Resale property
• Construction: Built as resale (year built details listed as resale); Aluminum siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Storm/security shutters; Community pool; Community dock and pier; Fishing access; Non-gated community; Property manager on-site

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heat strip heating
• Interior features: Furnished; Storm/security shutters; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry facilities in community

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.1% in Jensen Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 539 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $125k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.12%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,775
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -51.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,331
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $27,404
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 539
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $751/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $532	-5% $497	+0% $462	+5% $426	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $381	+0% $462	+5% $543	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $525	-0.5pp $494	base $462	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13825 S Indian River Dr Unit 13807 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$1,450	$2.90	15d	1	0.19mi
4220 NE Indian River Dr #5 Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	560	$1,800	$3.21	24d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $135,000 Active 957-char remark
18. 2005-08-19
    soldstatus $46,000 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    WELL CARED FOR MOBILE HOME IN QUIET 55+ PARK.COMMUNITY POOL , COMMUNITY DOCK ,LARGE FLORIDA ROOM AND CARPORT.BATHROOMS UPDATED . FURNITURE IS NEGOTIABLE

19. 2005-08-19
    price $55,000

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    WELL CARED FOR MOBILE HOME IN QUIET 55+ PARK.COMMUNITY POOL , COMMUNITY DOCK ,LARGE FLORIDA ROOM AND CARPORT.BATHROOMS UPDATED . FURNITURE IS NEGOTIABLE

20. 2005-07-19
    historical 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    WELL CARED FOR MOBILE HOME IN QUIET 55+ PARK.COMMUNITY POOL , COMMUNITY DOCK ,LARGE FLORIDA ROOM AND CARPORT.BATHROOMS UPDATED . FURNITURE IS NEGOTIABLE

21. 2005-07-07
    listed $46,000
22. 2005-07-05
    listed $55,000 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    WELL CARED FOR MOBILE HOME IN QUIET 55+ PARK.COMMUNITY POOL , COMMUNITY DOCK ,LARGE FLORIDA ROOM AND CARPORT.BATHROOMS UPDATED . FURNITURE IS NEGOTIABLE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$751
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $4,004
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$961
• After-tax cash flow: $4,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+127.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $124,900 MCRTC
• 2026-05-04 Listed $135,000 MCRTC
• 2005-08-19 Price Changed $55,000 MCRTC
• 2005-08-19 Sold (MLS) $46,000 Beaches MLS
• 2005-07-19 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2005-07-07 Listed $46,000 MCRTC
• 2005-07-05 Listed $55,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $751 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.