9460 N Lapeer Rd · Mayville, MI 48744

$94,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1930 5.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FINANCING AVAILABLE! Discover endless possibilities with this fixer-upper nestled on 5.25 acres, a spacious pole barn and the property backs up to the Greenbrier Golf Course. Unleash your creativity and transform this property in to the home of your dreams! Embrace the charm of rural living while enjoying the convenience of nearby amenities. This is your chance to reimagine and revitalize a unique slice of real estate.

Key facts

• 5.25 acre lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($996 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#531 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayville Community School District (rural): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #363 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $79k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.94%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-2,795
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $13,696
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48744

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $616/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-10-21
   soldstatus $79,150
2. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
3. 2024-01-31
   status Pending
4. 2024-01-15
   price $94,900
5. 2023-12-22
   listed $100,000 Active
6. 2006-10-30
   soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $616 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,039 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 68.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$616
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$956
• − Management: −$956
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$208
• After-tax cash flow: $2,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayville Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2623280
• Math proficiency: 27% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,303
• Composite: 25.73/100
• National rank: #7379
• State rank: #363 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mayville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #531
• US rank: #16077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,387

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.01%
• Current HPI: 274.1836
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+13.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $79,150 Public Records
• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-31 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-15 Price Changed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-12-22 Listed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $616 · -38.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.