Bay Creek Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34211

$492,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,110 sqft · Townhouse · 290 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious home includes a lower-level garage while the main floor upstairs features an open design among the kitchen, dining and living room that leads to a spacious lanai. The owner's suite features personal lanai access and two walk-in closets, while two secondary bedrooms are situated at the front of the home.

Key facts

• Lower-level garage
• Open design
• Spacious lanai

Tags

• LOWER-LEVEL GARAGE
• OPEN DESIGN
• SPACIOUS LANAI
• PERSONAL LANAI ACCESS
• TWO WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $492,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan in Lakewood Ranch, FL; Entry marketed under Bay Creek plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,110 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Bay Creek (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $492,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $525,390.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $493k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-626/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $453k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $434k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: B.D. Gullett Elementary School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,121 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 1164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,530/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 815% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($434k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $433,839 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $525,390
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6005 Worsham Ln #102	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,108 (-0%)	4mo	$518,500	$246	70
6025 Worsham Ln #102	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,108 (-0%)	3mo	$608,000	$288	68
19222 Cherrystone Way #102	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,110 (0%)	1mo	$515,000	$244	68
19209 Cherrystone Way #103	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,110 (0%)	4mo	$440,000	$209	67
19214 Cherrystone Way #103	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,110 (0%)	3mo	$514,998	$244	66
19214 Cherrystone Way #102	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,110 (0%)	4mo	$525,498	$249	66
19219 Cherrystone #102	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,110 (0%)	4mo	$475,000	$225	66
6046 Worsham Ln #102	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,108 (-0%)	4mo	$625,000	$296	65
6076 Worsham Ln #103	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,108 (-0%)	2mo	$618,000	$293	63
6055 Worsham Ln #102	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,110 (0%)	22mo	$700,000	$332	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-101,667
• Equity at exit: $78,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-143,837
• Equity at exit: $45,426

Cash invested: $147,109 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34211

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 1164
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,530 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,755
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$657 /mo · $7,881/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$951
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,596

Max offer price $517,838

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $129	+0% $-52	+5% $-234	+10% $-415
Rent	-10% $-410	-5% $-231	+0% $-52	+5% $127	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $81	base $-52	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,348
• Closing costs: $15,762
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5623 Mulligan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2359	$14,000	$5.93	25d	1	0.10mi
5420 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2445	$6,000	$2.45	25d	1	0.20mi
5628 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2252	$4,595	$2.04	5d	1	0.20mi
5522 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2725	$5,800	$2.13	25d	1	0.20mi
5612 Lightning Whelk Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2444	$12,500	$5.11	25d	1	0.20mi
19015 Scallop Loop Unit 7118 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,000	$3.82	25d	1	0.33mi
18121 Metado Dr Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	1827	$2,900	$1.59	25d	1	0.38mi
5720 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	25d	1	0.39mi
5725 Cheech Gln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1850	$12,000	$6.49	25d	1	0.39mi
5711 Palmer Cir #206 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$3,000	$2.05	25d	1	0.40mi
5721 Palmer Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1452	$3,250	$2.24	25d	2	0.43mi
5710 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$4,500	$3.08	25d	1	0.47mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	25d	1	0.49mi
17535 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2838	$5,495	$1.94	13d	1	0.49mi
17915 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,999	$1.47	25d	1	0.50mi
18002 Canopy Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,000	$1.27	5d	1	0.53mi
18731 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$8,000	$2.86	25d	1	0.54mi
17525 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2250	$7,800	$3.47	25d	1	0.57mi
17605 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,500	$1.71	25d	1	0.59mi
5907 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2246	$6,800	$3.03	25d	1	0.61mi
17467 Hickok Belt Loop Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$12,500	$5.56	25d	1	0.63mi
19168 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	2061	$4,500	$2.18	25d	1	0.65mi
19023 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$5,500	$2.45	5d	1	0.66mi
19156 Cherrystone Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$5,000	$2.23	25d	1	0.66mi
5947 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$13,000	$5.91	25d	1	0.68mi
5558 Palmer Cir #106 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1462	$6,000	$4.10	25d	1	0.69mi
17710 Cantarina Cv Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,500	$1.27	25d	1	0.70mi
5577 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	25d	1	0.74mi
6026 Brandon Run Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	25d	1	0.77mi
5537 Palmer Cir #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$3,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.78mi
17220 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,800	$1.53	25d	1	0.79mi
18117 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,000	$2.24	25d	1	0.80mi
5805 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$4,250	$2.01	18d	1	0.80mi
18017 Gawthrop Dr #104 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$6,000	$3.36	25d	1	0.81mi
5815 Wake Forest Run #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2108	$3,500	$1.66	25d	1	0.83mi
17419 Harvest Moon Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,595	$1.27	18d	1	0.84mi
17815 Gawthrop Dr #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$7,500	$4.20	25d	1	0.86mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$7,000	$5.38	25d	5	0.86mi
18114 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$7,000	$5.34	4d	3	0.86mi
18028 Gawthrop Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1310	$6,000	$4.58	18d	6	0.86mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $492,999 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $492,999 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $492,999 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $492,999 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $492,999 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $492,999 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $492,999 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $492,999 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $492,999 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $492,999 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $492,999 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $492,999 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $492,999 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $492,999 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $492,999 Active 269 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,430
• − Property taxes: −$7,881
• − Insurance: −$2,627
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,349
• − Management: −$4,349
• − Depreciation: −$15,284
• Taxable loss: −$9,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $1,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,980
• Household income: $119,911
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.84%
• Current HPI: 265.946
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.17%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B