3013 Duck River Ct · Rockwood, VA 23112

$289,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1989 7,100 sqft lot $302/sqft · 10% above area Est $263k · 10% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED. ALL OFFERS ARE TO BE SUBMITTED BY 8PM ON THURSDAY, MAY 1 FOR REVIEW ON FRIDAY. Three bedroom, one bathroom ranch style home is ready for a renovation. Property is in poor condition and an Assumption of Risk must be signed prior to showing.

Key facts

• 7,100 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale condition; R7 zoning
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction and drywall interior; Composition/shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as an existing/actual-year structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; Deck; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: All-new kitchen with island and new cabinetry; Quartz countertops; Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Electric range / smooth cooktop / stove; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 on the first level with closet (new LVP, new paint); Bedroom 3 on the first level with closet (new LVP, new paint); Additional bedroom/main-level primary with en suite access (new LVP, new paint)
• Flooring: New luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring throughout main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full bath with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Primary bedroom with private bath access; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Ceiling fan(s); New paint throughout; New windows; Accent wall in living room; Bath in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with new LVP and side deck entry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.2% in Rockwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#86 in VA, #2,803 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,489 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,185
• List price: $289,950
• Delta: 10.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3013 Duck River Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	0mo	$275,000	$286	96
12310 Duck River Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,020 (+6%)	4mo	$267,500	$262	78
3006 Shiloh Church Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	14mo	$300,000	$298	72
2901 S Ridge Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	8mo	$285,000	$270	65
12301 Beaver Point Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,048 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$310	63
12312 Beaver Hollow Ct	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$285,000	$270	61
12301 Beaver Hollow Ct	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	8mo	$215,000	$204	58
12403 Beaver Falls Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+10%)	7mo	$325,000	$307	51
2713 Brookforest Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,104 (+15%)	11mo	$299,100	$271	49
3000 Duck River Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-15%)	23mo	$238,000	$292	48
12400 Beaver Falls Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,086 (+13%)	18mo	$295,000	$272	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-25,849
• Equity at exit: $43,232

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-932
• Equity at exit: $25,070

Cash invested: $81,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23112

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,919/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,364

Max offer price $289,950

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $446	+0% $364	+5% $282	+10% $200
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $252	+0% $364	+5% $476	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $438	base $364	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,488
• Closing costs: $8,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2350 Scenic Lake Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$3,210	$2.56	2d	37	0.27mi
2801 Pavilion Pl Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,568	$2.78	2d	25	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $289,950 Active 1831-char remark
2. 2025-06-09
   soldstatus $175,000
3. 2025-06-06
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED. ALL OFFERS ARE TO BE SUBMITTED BY 8PM ON THURSDAY, MAY 1 FOR REVIEW ON FRIDAY. Three bedroom, one bathroom ranch style home is ready for a renovation. Property is in poor condition and an Assumption of Risk must be signed prior to showing.

4. 2025-05-02
   status Pending 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED. ALL OFFERS ARE TO BE SUBMITTED BY 8PM ON THURSDAY, MAY 1 FOR REVIEW ON FRIDAY. Three bedroom, one bathroom ranch style home is ready for a renovation. Property is in poor condition and an Assumption of Risk must be signed prior to showing.

5. 2025-04-25
   listed $135,000 Active 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED. ALL OFFERS ARE TO BE SUBMITTED BY 8PM ON THURSDAY, MAY 1 FOR REVIEW ON FRIDAY. Three bedroom, one bathroom ranch style home is ready for a renovation. Property is in poor condition and an Assumption of Risk must be signed prior to showing.

6. 1989-04-28
   soldstatus $53,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,919 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,242
• − Property taxes: −$1,919
• − Insurance: −$2,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − Depreciation: −$8,435
• Taxable loss: −$368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88
• After-tax cash flow: $4,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Rockwood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #2803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 57,016
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.87%
• Current HPI: 277.4841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+412.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $275,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-19 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $289,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-06 Sold (MLS) $175,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-05-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $135,000 CVRMLS
• 1989-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $53,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,919 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.