2022 Oahu Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1979 Est $155k · 45% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to Sell & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; you won & acirc; & euro; & trade; t find a better value in the sought after community of Lake Conley, a large Mobile Home Park in the city of Holiday Florida of Pasco County! This is a Gated 55+ Community with MULTIPLE amenities and a very low community fee. * * No lot Rent here so you own the land * * The Amenities include: Community Boat Ramp, Fishing Pier, Clubhouse with numerous activities and opportunities, heated Pool, Shuffleboard Court, Horseshoe Court, Lakefront Dock to sit and enjoy sunset, RV/Boat Parking and much more! This double wide mobile home is 1,148 sqft and bright with a lot of natural light all through

Key facts

• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 4.6% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $85k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.63%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,131
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3852 Bywater Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	968 (-4%)	2mo	$170,000	$176	90
2013 Wailua Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	1mo	$113,000	$118	88
2101 Maui Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (-5%)	0mo	$135,000	$141	86
2033 Maui Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	86
2032 Waterview Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	1mo	$165,400	$157	83
1934 Shady Cv	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+10%)	2mo	$90,000	$81	71
2100 Manoa Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	864 (-14%)	5mo	$100,000	$116	69
2125 Kepner Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	934 (-7%)	3mo	$80,000	$86	68
2119 Lullaby Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	877 (-13%)	2mo	$50,000	$57	63
3544 Tiki Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,008 (0%)	4mo	$110,000	$109	63
2107 Melody Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	890 (-12%)	2mo	$70,000	$79	60
2011 Melody Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,116 (+11%)	6mo	$75,000	$67	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-937
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $12,399
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,704/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $245	+0% $221	+5% $197	+10% $172
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $157	+0% $221	+5% $284	+10% $348
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $242	base $221	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	25d	1	0.26mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	0d	1	0.30mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,623	$1.60	0d	1	0.30mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.38mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	25d	1	0.39mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	21d	1	0.42mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	25d	1	0.43mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	25d	1	0.48mi
3405 Wilson Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	25d	1	0.48mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	25d	1	0.48mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	6d	1	0.50mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	25d	1	0.52mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	25d	1	0.53mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	6d	1	0.55mi
3536 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	25d	1	0.57mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	25d	1	0.60mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	16d	1	0.60mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,300	$1.58	0d	1	0.61mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.63mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	25d	1	0.67mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	6d	1	0.72mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	6d	1	0.72mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	23d	1	0.77mi
3623 Holiday Lake Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,525	$1.52	25d	1	0.80mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	3d	13	0.87mi
3531 Rosewater Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,795	$1.98	25d	1	0.87mi
3838 Staysail Ln Unit 3838 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,500	$1.35	25d	1	0.88mi
3530 Oxford Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,495	$1.38	23d	1	0.93mi
3052 Salton St Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,600	$1.50	25d	1	0.95mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	0d	7	0.95mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	3d	1	0.97mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	25d	1	0.97mi
1132 Maybury Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,838	$1.57	3d	1	1.00mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	25d	1	1.00mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	6d	1	1.01mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	6d	1	1.02mi
1051 Maybury Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,695	$1.66	23d	1	1.07mi
3104 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,640	$1.34	25d	1	1.08mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	25d	1	1.08mi
3054 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,500	$1.54	6d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $85,000
2. 1994-04-13
   soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,704
• − Insurance: −$5,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,727
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$414
• After-tax cash flow: $2,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+97.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $85,000 FSBO.com
• 1994-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,704 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.