Meyerson Plan · Waller, TX 77484

$319,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,740 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,740 Sq. Ft. The Meyerson offers expansive two-story living with a balanced mix of open gathering spaces and private retreats, designed for everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. From the welcoming foyer, the home opens into a bright central living area where the kitchen, casual dining space, and great room flow together seamlessly. The kitchen features a center island, generous counter space, and a walk-in pantry, all positioned for easy connection to the main living areas. Just off the great room, a covered patio extends the living space outdoors and can be expanded for additional room to relax or host guests. The primary suite is privately located on the first floor, tucked along the rear of the home for added serenity. It includes a spacious bath with dual vanities, a large shower, and a walk-in closet, with options to add direct access to the laundry room or a soaking tub for enhanced comfort. A secondary bedroom on the main level offers flexibility for guests, extended family, or a home office, while a versatile flex room may be personalized as a study, playroom, or quiet retreat. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms surround a large game room, creating a central space for recreation, study, or relaxation. Thoughtful storage throughout the second level adds everyday functionality and keeps the home organized.

Key facts

• Oversized closet
• Secondary bedroom
• Flex space

Tags

• DOWNSTAIRS OWNER'S SUITE
• OVERSIZED CLOSET
• DOOR TO LAUNDRY ROOM
• SECONDARY BEDROOM
• FLEX SPACE
• LARGE GAME ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $380,113.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-979 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1496 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,591 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.04%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,113
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -15.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32035 River Birch Ln	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,746 (+0%)	1mo	$374,925	$137	91
32039 River Birch Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,530 (-8%)	2mo	$444,925	$176	77
21902 Iris Colony Dr	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,802 (+2%)	3mo	$324,990	$116	76
21735 Bluestem Fields Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,746 (+0%)	2mo	$439,925	$160	76
32002 Indigo Brush Ln	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,584 (-6%)	0mo	$359,990	$139	72
32303 Mimosa Ridge Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,543 (-7%)	2mo	$381,597	$150	71
21918 Iris Colony Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,744 (+0%)	1mo	$339,990	$124	70
32034 Indigo Brush Ln	0.39mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,905 (+6%)	0mo	$349,990	$120	64
21914 Iris Colony Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,662 (-3%)	2mo	$431,805	$162	64
21914 Pecan Buff Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,662 (-3%)	2mo	$329,990	$124	60
21722 Bluestem Fields Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,455 (-10%)	0mo	$299,990	$122	58
21931 Pecan Buff Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,905 (+6%)	2mo	$448,387	$154	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-130,029
• Equity at exit: $56,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -84.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.04×
• Total profit: $-217,014
• Equity at exit: $32,865

Cash invested: $106,432 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 51 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $365,990 ($143/sqft)
• Median days on market: 103 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1496
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,702/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-979

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,325

Max offer price $238,449

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-716	-5% $-848	+0% $-979	+5% $-1,110	+10% $-1,242
Rent	-10% $-1,144	-5% $-1,061	+0% $-979	+5% $-897	+10% $-814
Rate	-1.0pp $-788	-0.5pp $-882	base $-979	+0.5pp $-1,078	+1.0pp $-1,178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,028
• Closing costs: $11,403
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $319,990 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $319,990 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $319,990 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $319,990 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $319,990 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $319,990 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $319,990 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $319,990 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $319,990 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 279 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $319,990 Active 278 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 274 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 273 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $319,990 Active 272 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 271 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 270 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $319,990 Active 269 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $319,990 Active 268 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $319,990 Active 267 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $319,990 Active 265 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $319,990 Active 264 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $319,990 Active 263 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $319,990 Active 262 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 261 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 260 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 259 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $319,990 Active 258 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $319,990 Active 257 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $319,990 Active 256 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $319,990 Active 255 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $319,990 Active 254 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $319,990 Active 252 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $319,990 Active 249 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $319,990 Active 246 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $319,990 Active 245 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $319,990 Active 244 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $319,990 Active 243 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $319,990 Active 241 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $319,990 Active 237 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,990 Active 236 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,990 Active 235 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,990 Active 232 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 231 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $319,990 Active 230 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 229 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 228 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,292
• − Property taxes: −$5,702
• − Insurance: −$1,901
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$11,058
• Taxable loss: −$18,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,542
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,700–$41,100 screening

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, but a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrade landscaping — A well-maintained garden can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home technology can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive to buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waller, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $322,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $339,990 Zillow