8545 Mission Gorge Rd Spc 252 · Santee, CA 92071

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 9 Days on market

Built 1967 9.60 ac lot Est $210k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Mission Gorge Villas, a 55+ community with an SUPER LOW SPACE RENT OF $740 MONTHLY. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious layout featuring a built-in buffet in the dining room, a kitchen with a gas stove, a walk-in closet in the primary bedroom, two walk-in showers, and two solar tubes that provide natural light—one in the kitchen and one in the bathroom. Additional features include a large covered porch and patio area, storage shed, and a two-car carport. Conveniently located near Costco, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Trader Joe’s, and recreational areas such as Santee Lakes for fishing and Cowles Mountain for walking and hiking, with easy access to the I-52 and

Key facts

• Built-in buffet
• Large covered porch
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• BUILT-IN BUFFET
• GAS STOVE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• SOLAR TUBES
• LARGE COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park directions: Use GPS
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $740
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Trash included in rent

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (10' x 60') remains on site; Single-story; Located in a senior community; Located in Mission Gorge Villas park
• Construction: Mobile home
• Exterior features: Indoor pool; Community pool; Street lighting; Rectangular lot shape; One shed on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom(s) with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Front porch entry; One-level home; Walk-in closet; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $958 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.6% in Santee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#361 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D, cost of living F.
• Santee (suburban): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #130 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 197 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.66%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8545 Mission Gorge Rd Spc 232	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+10%)	3mo	$299,000	$226	80
8545 Mission Gorge Rd Spc 147	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+10%)	2mo	$315,000	$238	74
8301 Mission Gorge Rd #282	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+4%)	5mo	$310,000	$248	66
8301 Mission Gorge Rd #86	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (+6%)	2mo	$223,000	$175	65
8545 Mission Gorge Rd Spc 141	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-13%)	7mo	$230,000	$221	65
8301 Mission Gorge Road 301	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+10%)	4mo	$295,000	$223	62
8301 Mission Gorge Rd #124	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+14%)	0mo	$100,000	$73	57
8301 Mission Gorge Rd #172	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+12%)	3mo	$220,000	$164	54
8301 Mission Gorge Rd #154	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+12%)	5mo	$160,000	$119	52
8301 Mission Gorge Rd #286	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+14%)	4mo	$189,000	$138	50
8301 Mission Gorge Rd #351	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+14%)	8mo	$240,000	$175	47
8301 Mission Gorge Rd Spc 382	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+14%)	8mo	$225,000	$164	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $18,766
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $68,983
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92071

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,137 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $958

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8605 Arminda Cir Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$2,650	$2.77	1d	1	0.10mi
8609 Arminda Cir #13 Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	984	$3,000	$3.05	1d	1	0.12mi
7962 Arly Ct #12 Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	945	$2,800	$2.96	1d	1	0.66mi
8745 Redwood Dr Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1264	$3,100	$2.45	1d	1	0.74mi
177 Via Montisi Santee, CA	2.0	2.5	1239	$3,450	$2.78	1d	1	0.76mi
69 Via Sovana Santee, CA	3.0	3.0	1342	$3,600	$2.68	1d	1	0.77mi
8434 Kreiner Way Santee, CA	3.0	2.0	1305	$4,213	$3.23	21d	1	0.79mi
8009 Calle Fanita Santee, CA	2.0	1.5	1024	$2,995	$2.92	1d	1	0.95mi
8621 Willow Ter Santee, CA	3.0	2.0	1457	$3,600	$2.47	3d	1	1.25mi
8617 Bushy Hill Dr Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1299	$2,900	$2.23	1d	1	1.28mi
9525 Mission Gorge Rd Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,795	$3.10	1d	4	1.28mi
9409 Lake Murray Blvd San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1290	$3,300	$2.56	17d	1	1.44mi
9661 Carlton Hills Blvd Santee, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,895	$2.41	1d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 681-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $220,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,012
• − Management: −$3,012
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $8,499
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,040
• After-tax cash flow: $9,456/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santee
• NCES district ID: 0635880
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,452
• Composite: 45.0/100
• National rank: #2698
• State rank: #130 of 517 in CA

Livability — Santee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #12272

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santee, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 59,590
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 59,590
• Household income: $113,618
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1719.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -607.00%
• Current HPI: 393.1781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+267.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2010-06-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-06-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2009-12-29 Listed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2009-12-29 Listed $59,900 SDMLS