1050 Highway 44 W #160 · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * You'll love living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home within a wonderful family-friendly community. Check out the awesome amenities your community has to offer such as community events, , , and more! This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 104 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $65,000

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Central air
• Home design: Spec new construction (Plan 91296); Single-level living area of 1,216

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $595 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.2% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.35%
• DSCR: 4.00
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $27,649
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $74,047
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,109

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $640	-5% $617	+0% $595	+5% $572	+10% $550
Rent	-10% $448	-5% $521	+0% $595	+5% $668	+10% $742
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $611	base $595	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Mud Hen Dr Shepherdsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,695	$1.63	17d	1	0.56mi
1701 Saltwell Springs Cir Shepherdsville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,275	$2.12	24d	1	0.57mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL8 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	24d	1	0.84mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL1 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	16d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 86 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$5,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $5,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting the exterior and interior, and replacing the flooring, would significantly enhance its appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and needs repainting
• Moderate Flooring — Worn and may need replacement
• Minor Interior walls/paint — Clean but dated

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace flooring — Improves living conditions
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and needs repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · Worn and may need replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls/paint · Clean but dated	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace flooring — Improves living conditions ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherdsville, KY
• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B