2971 Estancia Blvd #229 · Dunedin, FL 33761

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · Condo public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1983 $637/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2/2 condo. Ready for Sale. Fully furnished. Ready for move in.

Key facts

• Corner unit
• $637 HOA
• Parking

Tags

• CORNER UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; No lease restrictions indicated
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $637; total annual fees listed as $7,644
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee $637 (includes cable TV); Association name: Resource Property Management; Association approval required; Community amenities: Playground, Pool; Pets allowed with breed restrictions (max 60 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable connected; No listed water source
• Home design: Residential condominium; 2 stories total; Faces west; Located on 2nd floor
• Construction: Block construction; Membrane and shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as part of a multi-unit building (Building #200)
• Exterior features: In-ground pool; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (18.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.8% in Dunedin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#15 in FL, #411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 201 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $130k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,389 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-34,224
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -72.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-58,827
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33761

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,363/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$637
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $106,389

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2971 Estancia Blvd #321 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	995	$1,975	$1.98	4d	1	0.01mi
305 Hammock Pine Blvd #305 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.5	760	$1,500	$1.97	24d	1	0.12mi
2999 Fieldbrook Pl Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1164	$2,300	$1.98	24d	1	0.20mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,700	$2.09	2d	3	0.21mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	946	$1,675	$1.77	3d	2	0.21mi
2500 Winding Creek Blvd Unit C205 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	946	$1,700	$1.80	4d	1	0.22mi
28488 U.S. 19 Unit 150 Clearwater, FL	3.0	1.5	990	$1,500	$1.52	11d	1	0.33mi
373 Majesty Dr Unit 373 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.51mi
2307 Cumberland Cir Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,099	$2.40	3d	15	0.59mi
2780 Cypress Dr Unit A Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	22d	1	0.67mi
3052 Park Ln Unit B Dunedin, FL	2.0	1.0	821	$1,700	$2.07	24d	1	0.71mi
3055 Belcher Rd Dunedin, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,345	$1.79	22d	1	0.73mi
2780 Park Dr Unit D 4 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,625	$1.81	24d	1	0.78mi
2673 Sabal Springs Cir #201 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.5	805	$2,675	$3.32	7d	1	0.79mi
2228 Richter St Unit A Dunedin, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,900	$1.55	24d	1	0.80mi
2713 Countryside Blvd #108 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	3d	1	0.96mi
2581 Countryside Blvd Unit 304 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	24d	1	1.04mi
1430 Heather Ridge Blvd #304 Dunedin, FL	1.0	1.0	915	$1,500	$1.64	24d	1	1.06mi
2524 Alexander Pl Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,090	$2.11	2d	20	1.20mi
2257 Palmwood Dr Dunedin, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,475	$2.15	4d	1	1.21mi
2561 Forest Run Ct Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,000	$1.75	3d	1	1.24mi
2690 Enterprise Rd E Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,564	$2.44	3d	9	1.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $637 · $7,644/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-04-28
    price $129,900
14. 2026-03-16
    listed $139,900 Active
15. 1984-12-01
    soldstatus $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,363 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,363
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − HOA: −$7,644
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$3,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$813
• After-tax cash flow: $-784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dunedin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #411

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 38,171
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,290
• Household income: $74,728
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 336.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -316.31%
• Current HPI: 281.6948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.11%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+124.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,363 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.