3950 Pheasant Run Trce · Cumming, GA 30028

$439,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1995 0.45 ac lot $195/sqft · 14% below area Est $550k · 20% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable cape cod checks all the boxes! This 4 bedroom 3.5 bath home in highly sought after Poole's Mill elementary district! Home features refreshed exterior featuring board and batten and front porch railing and newer dormer siding. All new windows installed in 2023. Downstairs features living room with wood burning fireplace that flows into kitchen/dining area. Kitchen features freshly painted cabinets and granite counter tops with tile backsplash. Dining area is right off the kitchen has enough room for a large table. Master on main features hardwood floors and has attached bathroom with dual vanities, granite counter-tops, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet. There is a half bathroom on main level which also houses the laundry area. Upstairs features 2 additional bedrooms and full bathroom. The basement features the 2 car pull under garage and a finished bedroom with closet and full bathroom. Exiting the basement under the deck is a finished studio apartment with that is perfect for a teen or college student! Large over-sized back deck features covered gazebo space with electrical that could be the perfect man-cave or she-shed or even an office. Fenced back yard. Close to schools, mountains, Lake Lanier, shopping and Northside Hospital!

Key facts

• Newer dormer siding
• Refreshed exterior
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• REFRESHED EXTERIOR
• NEWER DORMER SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FRESHLY PAINTED CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $550 annual fee; Association covers grounds and structure maintenance, pool, and termite service; Community amenities include pool and playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (garage); 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; 220 volts available in garage; Cable available
• Home design: One-and-one-half level layout; Resale property; Concrete perimeter foundation; Composition/shingle roof; Construction includes cement siding and concrete
• Construction: Cement siding; Concrete construction; Other construction materials; Concrete perimeter foundation; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced backyard with wood fence; Gazebo; Outbuilding; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast room; White cabinets; Solid surface counters; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master on main; 1 main level bedroom; 2 upper level bedrooms; 1 lower level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with double vanity and separate tub/shower; Main level half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Bookcases; Walk-in closet(s); Factory-built fireplace in family room; Double pane, ENERGY STAR qualified windows; 2+ common walls
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-592 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poole'S Mill Elementary (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #327 of 1,228 statewide, top 27%, 1,090 students, 15% FRL); North Forsyth High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 2,065 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forsyth County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 532 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($433k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; list at $440k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,372 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.77%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $549,987
• List price: $439,900
• Delta: -20.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3930 Pheasant Run Trce	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,205 (-2%)	5mo	$400,000	$181	88
3820 Pheasant Run Trce	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,202 (-2%)	4mo	$360,000	$163	85
4035 Silverthorn Trce	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,238 (-1%)	14mo	$530,000	$237	65
4215 Pheasant Run Trce	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,593 (+15%)	3mo	$495,000	$191	61
3975 Silverthorn Trce	0.25mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,565 (+14%)	3mo	$500,000	$195	56
4150 Starr Creek Rd	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,444 (+8%)	6mo	$413,000	$169	51
4845 Haley Farms Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,455 (+9%)	7mo	$470,000	$191	46
4940 Hanna Kate Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,137 (-5%)	12mo	$475,000	$222	44
4265 Elmhurst Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,972 (-13%)	13mo	$429,000	$218	38
3410 Summerpoint Xing	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,584 (+14%)	10mo	$550,000	$213	32
4150 Longmont Dr	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,572 (+14%)	21mo	$495,000	$192	29
4435 Montrose Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,571 (+14%)	20mo	$485,000	$189	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-108,066
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-138,802
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30028

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 532
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,769/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,713

Max offer price $335,280

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4735 Bryn Ridge Ct Cumming, GA	3.0	2.0	2042	$2,475	$1.21	5d	1	0.86mi
3545 Bridgeshaw Dr Cumming, GA	3.0	2.5	2500	$2,486	$0.99	5d	1	1.03mi
4945 Shipley Ave Cumming, GA	5.0	4.5	3072	$3,300	$1.07	20d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $439,900 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $439,900 Active 30 DOM

   Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

   This adorable cape cod checks all the boxes! This 4 bedroom 3.5 bath home in highly sought after Poole's Mill elementary district! Home features refreshed exterior featuring board and batten and front porch railing and newer dormer siding. All new windows installed in 2023. Downstairs features living room with wood burning fireplace that flows into kitchen/dining area. Kitchen features freshly painted cabinets and granite counter tops with tile backsplash. Dining area is right off the kitchen has enough room for a large table. Master on main features hardwood floors and has attached bathroom with dual vanities, granite counter-tops, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet. There is a half bathroom on main level which also houses the laundry area. Upstairs features 2 additional bedrooms and full bathroom. The basement features the 2 car pull under garage and a finished bedroom with closet and full bathroom. Exiting the basement under the deck is a finished studio apartment with that is perfect for a teen or college student! Large over-sized back deck features covered gazebo space with electrical that could be the perfect man-cave or she-shed or even an office. Fenced back yard. Close to schools, mountains, Lake Lanier, shopping and Northside Hospital!

3. 2026-05-18
   price $439,900 1269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

   This adorable cape cod checks all the boxes! This 4 bedroom 3.5 bath home in highly sought after Poole's Mill elementary district! Home features refreshed exterior featuring board and batten and front porch railing and newer dormer siding. All new windows installed in 2023. Downstairs features living room with wood burning fireplace that flows into kitchen/dining area. Kitchen features freshly painted cabinets and granite counter tops with tile backsplash. Dining area is right off the kitchen has enough room for a large table. Master on main features hardwood floors and has attached bathroom with dual vanities, granite counter-tops, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet. There is a half bathroom on main level which also houses the laundry area. Upstairs features 2 additional bedrooms and full bathroom. The basement features the 2 car pull under garage and a finished bedroom with closet and full bathroom. Exiting the basement under the deck is a finished studio apartment with that is perfect for a teen or college student! Large over-sized back deck features covered gazebo space with electrical that could be the perfect man-cave or she-shed or even an office. Fenced back yard. Close to schools, mountains, Lake Lanier, shopping and Northside Hospital!

4. 2026-05-18
   price $439,900 1269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

   This adorable cape cod checks all the boxes! This 4 bedroom 3.5 bath home in highly sought after Poole's Mill elementary district! Home features refreshed exterior featuring board and batten and front porch railing and newer dormer siding. All new windows installed in 2023. Downstairs features living room with wood burning fireplace that flows into kitchen/dining area. Kitchen features freshly painted cabinets and granite counter tops with tile backsplash. Dining area is right off the kitchen has enough room for a large table. Master on main features hardwood floors and has attached bathroom with dual vanities, granite counter-tops, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet. There is a half bathroom on main level which also houses the laundry area. Upstairs features 2 additional bedrooms and full bathroom. The basement features the 2 car pull under garage and a finished bedroom with closet and full bathroom. Exiting the basement under the deck is a finished studio apartment with that is perfect for a teen or college student! Large over-sized back deck features covered gazebo space with electrical that could be the perfect man-cave or she-shed or even an office. Fenced back yard. Close to schools, mountains, Lake Lanier, shopping and Northside Hospital!

5. 2026-05-01
   listed $450,000 New 1269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

   This adorable cape cod checks all the boxes! This 4 bedroom 3.5 bath home in highly sought after Poole's Mill elementary district! Home features refreshed exterior featuring board and batten and front porch railing and newer dormer siding. All new windows installed in 2023. Downstairs features living room with wood burning fireplace that flows into kitchen/dining area. Kitchen features freshly painted cabinets and granite counter tops with tile backsplash. Dining area is right off the kitchen has enough room for a large table. Master on main features hardwood floors and has attached bathroom with dual vanities, granite counter-tops, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet. There is a half bathroom on main level which also houses the laundry area. Upstairs features 2 additional bedrooms and full bathroom. The basement features the 2 car pull under garage and a finished bedroom with closet and full bathroom. Exiting the basement under the deck is a finished studio apartment with that is perfect for a teen or college student! Large over-sized back deck features covered gazebo space with electrical that could be the perfect man-cave or she-shed or even an office. Fenced back yard. Close to schools, mountains, Lake Lanier, shopping and Northside Hospital!

6. 2026-05-01
   listed $450,000 Active 1269-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

   This adorable cape cod checks all the boxes! This 4 bedroom 3.5 bath home in highly sought after Poole's Mill elementary district! Home features refreshed exterior featuring board and batten and front porch railing and newer dormer siding. All new windows installed in 2023. Downstairs features living room with wood burning fireplace that flows into kitchen/dining area. Kitchen features freshly painted cabinets and granite counter tops with tile backsplash. Dining area is right off the kitchen has enough room for a large table. Master on main features hardwood floors and has attached bathroom with dual vanities, granite counter-tops, separate tub/shower and walk-in closet. There is a half bathroom on main level which also houses the laundry area. Upstairs features 2 additional bedrooms and full bathroom. The basement features the 2 car pull under garage and a finished bedroom with closet and full bathroom. Exiting the basement under the deck is a finished studio apartment with that is perfect for a teen or college student! Large over-sized back deck features covered gazebo space with electrical that could be the perfect man-cave or she-shed or even an office. Fenced back yard. Close to schools, mountains, Lake Lanier, shopping and Northside Hospital!

7. 2023-11-07
   historical
8. 2023-10-24
   price $435,000
9. 2023-10-18
   status Back On Market
10. 2023-10-16
    status Under Contract
11. 2023-10-09
    listed $439,900 New
12. 2020-02-27
    soldstatus $260,000
13. 2020-02-21
    soldstatus $260,000 Closed
14. 2020-02-21
    soldstatus $260,000 Sold
15. 2020-02-01
    status Pending
16. 2020-01-30
    status Under Contract
17. 2020-01-30
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2020-01-03
    price $260,000
19. 2020-01-02
    price $260,000
20. 2019-11-14
    listed $275,000 Active
21. 2019-11-14
    listed $275,000 New
22. 2014-12-18
    price $190,000
23. 2014-12-01
    historical
24. 2014-12-01
    soldstatus $190,000
25. 2014-11-25
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold
26. 2014-11-25
    price $199,900
27. 2014-11-20
    status Pending
28. 2014-11-08
    historical Contingent - Due Diligence
29. 2014-09-25
    listed $199,900 Active
30. 1996-04-10
    soldstatus $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,769 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,769 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$4,769
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,845
• − Management: −$2,845
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable loss: −$15,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,620
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth County
• NCES district ID: 1302220
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,763
• Composite: 56.54/100
• National rank: #1151
• State rank: #5 of 174 in GA

Livability — Cumming

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #3797

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Forsyth County · 198,629 people
• City population: 198,629
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 38,433
• Household income: $138,011
• Rent vs Own: 13.3% rent · 86.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 257.0

Population outlook (Forsyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 294,519 people
• By 2030: 336,546 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 421,220 · +43.0%
• By 2050: 502,754 · +70.7%
• By 2075: 683,179 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 792,174 · +169.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Forsyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.9% · R 66.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.9pp toward D · 2008: -58.0pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.48%
• Current HPI: 264.5815
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+238.6% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-31 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $439,900 GAMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $439,900 FMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $450,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $450,000 GAMLS
• 2023-11-07 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $435,000 GAMLS
• 2023-10-18 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-10-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $439,900 GAMLS
• 2020-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-21 Sold (MLS) $260,000 GAMLS
• 2020-02-21 Sold (MLS) $260,000 FMLS
• 2020-02-01 Pending — FMLS
• 2020-01-30 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-01-30 Contingent — FMLS
• 2020-01-03 Price Changed $260,000 GAMLS
• 2020-01-02 Price Changed $260,000 FMLS
• 2019-11-14 Listed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2019-11-14 Listed $275,000 FMLS
• 2014-12-18 Price Changed $190,000 FMLS
• 2014-12-01 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2014-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-25 Sold (MLS) $190,000 FMLS
• 2014-11-25 Price Changed $199,900 FMLS
• 2014-11-20 Pending — FMLS
• 2014-11-08 Contingent — FMLS
• 2014-09-25 Listed $199,900 FMLS
• 1996-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,769 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.